博碩士論文 966201009 詳細資訊

本論文永久網址:   


以作者查詢圖書館館藏 以作者查詢臺灣博碩士 以作者查詢全國書目 勘誤回報 、線上人數:24 、訪客IP:18.191.178.5
姓名 尤心瑜(Hsin-yu Yu)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 大氣物理研究所
論文名稱 同化都卜勒雷達資料改善模式預報之研究
相關論文
★ 單雷達風場反演—【移動坐標法】的特性分析與應用★ 由都卜勒風場反演熱動力場的新方法 ——TAMEX IOP#2颮線個案應用分析
★ 利用VAD技術及回波保守方程反演渦度場★ 利用單都卜勒雷達反演三維風場之研究─以數值模式資料驗證
★ 在地形上由都卜勒風場反演熱動力場★ 利用Extended-GBVTD方法反求非軸對稱颱風(颶風)風場結構
★ 同化雷達資料對數值預報影響之研究★ 使用系集卡曼濾波器同化都卜勒雷達資料之研究
★ 以3DVAR同化都卜勒雷達觀測及反演資料對於數值模擬結果的影響★ 台灣北部初秋豪雨個案之降雨特性研究
★ 2008年台灣西南部地區TRMM降雨雷達與七股雷達回波觀測比較分析及降雨估計應用研究★ 使用四維變分同化都卜勒雷達資料以改進短期定量降雨預報
★ 同化多部都卜勒雷達資料以提升降水預報能力之研究-2008 SoWMEX IOP8個案分析★ 結合VDRAS、WRF與雷達網聯資料,以檢視對台灣地區短期降水預報改善之成效
★ 結合都卜勒雷達觀測及反演氣象變數與COSMIC RO資料以改進模式預報之可行性研究★ 使用偏極化/多都卜勒雷達資料研究莫拉克颱風(2009)地形降雨特性
檔案 [Endnote RIS 格式]    [Bibtex 格式]    [相關文章]   [文章引用]   [完整記錄]   [館藏目錄]   [檢視]  [下載]
  1. 本電子論文使用權限為同意立即開放。
  2. 已達開放權限電子全文僅授權使用者為學術研究之目的,進行個人非營利性質之檢索、閱讀、列印。
  3. 請遵守中華民國著作權法之相關規定,切勿任意重製、散佈、改作、轉貼、播送,以免觸法。

摘要(中) 本研究目的為探討:同化都卜勒雷逹資料及其所反演的大氣狀態變數,於改善劇烈風暴發展預報的可行性。而此研究方法的流程共包含以下三部份:雙都卜勒雷達風場反演、熱動力反演及水汽調整。
研究共設計6組實驗,而所有的實驗都是在 OSSE實驗架構下進行,其測試內容如下:(a)研究方法完整流程的測試、(b)同化次數及同化時間間距的測試、(c)探討探空資料在同化過程中所扮演的角色、(d)測試同化都卜勒雷逹資料及反演氣壓場,並於同化過程中利用垂直動量方程式來得到溫度場,看其對模擬結果的影響。
實驗結果顯示,經同化都卜勒雷逹觀測資料及其反演的大氣狀態變數後,的確改善初始條件微弱風暴的降水預報結果。於同化次數及同化時間間距的測試,則發現兩者對於改善預報降水的敏感度較低;而在同化過程中,給予探空資料將提升同化結果的準確度,並在此同化之後,再進行一次沒有探空資料的同化,於預報結果有更進一步的改善。而未來最重要的工作目標,則是將本研究方法,應用在真實個案上,期望在實際作業上能改善定量降水的預報能力。
摘要(英) The purpose of this study is to explore the feasibility of assimilating atmospheric state variables observed as well as derived from Doppler radar data to improve the prediction of a thunderstorm development. In the methodology, the complete algorithm is composed of three steps, namely (1) wind retrieval, (2) thermodynamic retrieval, and (3) moisture adjustment. The performance of the proposed method is investigated by six experiments, and all of them are conducted under the framework of OSSE (Observation System Simulation Experiment). From these experiments, it is attempted to address the following issues: (1) verification of proposed method (2) the impact of the assimilation frequency and assimilation time interval, (3) influence of assimilating with/without sounding data, and (4) influence of assimilating Doppler radar data and retrieval pressure field only. In (4), the vertical momentum equation is utilized to obtain the absolute potential temperature fields.
The results demonstrate that the accuracy of storm rainfall prediction can be improved after assimilating observed/retrieved atmosphere state variables from Doppler radar data. However, the impact on rainfall prediction from the assimilation frequency and time interval is insignificant. By contrast, the model forecast can be improved substantially if the data from a sounding released within the analysis domain is available. Furthermore, after the first assimilation with sounding, if one conducts a second assimilation even without the information from sounding observations, additional improvements can be achieved. The application of this method to real case study would be a natural extension of this study in the future.
論文目次 中文摘要……………………………………………………………… i
英文摘要………………………………………………………………ii
誌謝 ………………………………………………………………iii
目錄 ………………………………………………………………iv
圖表目錄 …………………………………………………………vi
第一章 前言………………………………………………… …1
1.1 研究動機 …………………………………………………1
1.2 文獻回顧 …………………………………………………2
1.3 論文架構 …………………………………………………4
第二章 研究方法 ………………………………………………5
2.1 都卜勒雷達風場合成 …………………………………5
2.2 熱動力反演方法…………………………………………7
2.3熱動力場及水汽調整方法…………………………… 10
第三章 實驗設計 ……………………………………………14
3.1 數值模式介紹 …………………………………………14
3.1.1 WRF 模式設定 …………………………………… 14
3.1.2 OSSE 實驗概念…………………………………… 15
3.2 實驗流程介紹 ………………………………………16
3.3 檢驗方法 …………………………………………………17
3.3.1 同化結果檢驗方法 ……………………………… 18
3.3.2 定量降水檢驗方法 ……………………………… 19
第四章 結果分析 …………………………………………21
4.1 實驗1:『研究方法測試一』 ………………………21
4.2 實驗2:『研究方法測試二』 ………………………23
4.3 實驗3:『同化次數測試』 ………………………25
4.4 實驗4:『同化時間間距測試』………………………28
4.5 實驗5:『探空資料的影響』 ………………………30
4.6 實驗6:『使用垂直動量方程式計算溫度場測試』
……………………………………………32
第五章 結論與未來展望…………………………………… 35
5.1 結論 ………………………………………………35
5.2 未來展望 ………………………………………………36
參考文獻 ………………………………………………………… 38
附表與附圖 ………………………………………………………… 42
略語表 ………………………………………………………… 79
參考文獻 鐘高陞、廖宇慶、陳台琦,2002:由都卜勒風場反演三維熱動力場的可行性研究-以台灣地區飑線個案為例。大氣科學,第30期,313-330。
Crook, A., 1994a:Numerical simulations initialized with radar-derived winds. Part I:Simulated data experiments. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 1189-1203.
_____, and J. D. Tuttle , 1994b:Numerical simulations initialized with radar-derived
winds. Part II:Forecasts of three gust-front cases . Mon. Wea.
Rev., 122, 1204-1217.
Gal-Chen, T. J., 1978: A method for the initialization of the anelastic equations:Implications for matching models with observations. Mon. Wea.Rev.,106,587-606 .
Heideman K.F., and J. M. Fritsch ,1988:Forcing mechanism and other characteristics of significant summertime precipitation. Wea. Forecasting, 3, 115-130.
Kessler, E., 1969: On the distribution and continuity of water substance in atmospheric circulations. Meteor. Monogr., 10, American Meteorological Society, Boston, North America, 84pp.
Lilly, D.K., 1990:Numerical prediction of thunderstorms –has its time come? Q.J.R. Meteor. Soc., 116, 779-798
Lin, Y., P.S. Ray, and K.W. Johnson, 1993:Initialization of a modeled convective storm using Doppler radar-derived fields. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2757-2775
Liou, Y.-C., 2001:The derivation of absolute potential temperature perturbations and pressure gradients from wind measurements in three-dimensional sPace . Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic
Technology, 18, 577-590.
_____, T.C. Chen Wang, and K.S. Chung, 2003: A three-dimensional variational approach for deriving the thermodynamic structure using Doppler wind observations—An application to a subtropical squall line. J. Appl. Meteor., 42, 1443–1454.
_____,Y.J. Chang, 2009: A variational multiple-Doppler radar three -dimensional wind synthesis method and its imPact on thermodynamic retrieval. Mon. Wea. Rev.(Accepted)
Rogers R. R., and M.K. Yau ,1989:A short course in cloud physics, Pergamon, Oxford, England, 293pp.
Roux, F., 1985: Retrieval of thermodynamic fields from multiple-Doppler radar data using the equations of motion and the thermodynamic equation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 2142–2157.
_____, 1988: The West African squall line observed on 23 June 1981 during COPT 81: Kinematics and thermodynamics of the convective region. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 406–426.
Roux, F., and J. Sun, 1990: Single-Doppler observations of a West African squall line on 27-28 May 1981 during COPT 81: Kinematics, thermodynamics and water budget. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 1826–1854.
Schaefer, J. T., 1990:The Critical Success Index as an indicator of warning skill. Wea. Forecasting, 5,570-575
Shapiro, A., S. Ellis, and J. Shaw, 1995: Single-Doppler velocity retrievals with Phoenix II data: Clear air and microburst wind retrievals in the planetary boundary layer. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1265–1287.
Snyder, C., and F. Zhang, 2003: Assimilation of simulated Doppler radar observations with an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1663–1677.
Sun, J., and N.A. Crook, 1997: Dynamical and microphysical retrieval from Doppler radar observations using a cloud model and its adjoint. Part I: Model development and simulated data experiments. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 1642–1661.
_____, _____ ,1998: Dynamical and microphysical retrieval from Doppler radar observations using a cloud model and its adjoint. Part II: Retrieval experiments of an observed Florida convective storm. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 835–852.
_____, _____, 2001: Real-time low-level wind and temperature analysis using single WSR-88D data. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 117–132.
Tong, M., and M. Xue, 2005: Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of Doppler radar data with a compressible nonhydrostatic model: OSS experiments. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1789–1807.
Weisman, M.L., and R. Rotunno, 2000: The use of vertical wind shear versus helicity in interpreting supercell dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 1452–1472.
Weygandt S.S.,A. Shapiro, and K.K. Droegemeier , 2002a:Retrieval of model initial fields from single-Doppler observations of a supercell thunderstorm.Part I:Single-Doppler velocity retrieval. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 433-453
_____, _____,and_____,2002b:Retrieval of model initial fields from single-Doppler observations of a supercell thunderstorm. Part II:Thermodynamic retrieval and numerical prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 454-476
Xiao, Q., Y.H. Kuo, J. Sun, W.C. Lee, E. Lim, Y.R. Guo, and D.M. Barker, 2005: Assimilation of Doppler radar observations with a regional 3DVAR System: ImPact of Doppler velocities on forecasts of a heavy rainfall case. J. Appl. Meteor., 44, 768–788
指導教授 廖宇慶(Yu-Chieng Liou) 審核日期 2009-6-28
推文 facebook   plurk   twitter   funp   google   live   udn   HD   myshare   reddit   netvibes   friend   youpush   delicious   baidu   
網路書籤 Google bookmarks   del.icio.us   hemidemi   myshare   

若有論文相關問題,請聯絡國立中央大學圖書館推廣服務組 TEL:(03)422-7151轉57407,或E-mail聯絡  - 隱私權政策聲明