前瞻性資訊揭露的影響因素及其對未來盈餘的影響

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姓名

黃靖盈(Ching-Ying Huang) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

企業管理學系

論文名稱

前瞻性資訊揭露的影響因素及其對未來盈餘的影響
(The determinants of forward-looking information disclosure and forward-looking information disclosure affects future earnings)

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摘要(中)

公司在年報中所揭露的前瞻性資訊，是投資人進行分析時的重要資料來源，本文主要探討前瞻性資訊揭露的影響因素。本研究旨在探討透過美國上市櫃企業10-K年報中的前瞻性資訊揭露強度(forward-looking intensity)，是否與公司特徵因素有關連，能讓投資者真正了解公司當前表現、股票報酬以及未來發展，而非是只能透過可能被管理者修飾過或試圖降低應計費用後的財報資訊來了解公司狀況，本研究目的在於透過探討前瞻性資訊揭露影響因素，降低投資者與公司當局的資訊不對稱狀況。
本研究利用文字探勘技術，蒐集並分析Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) EDGAR資料庫中所發布之美國上市公司2000年至2018年10-K年報，利用文字探勘技術搜尋年報中管理階層討論與分析(Management’s Discussion and Analysis)的部分具前瞻性的關鍵句子，並使用Compustat以及CRSP資料庫蒐集公司資產負債表相關指標、盈餘資訊以及股票報酬等資料。探討公司經營績效相關變數對前瞻性資訊揭露的影響。此外，本研究進一步測試前瞻性資訊揭露對公司未來盈餘之間的關係。
實證結果表明，本研究中證實公司盈餘表現與前瞻性資訊揭露強度間，呈顯著負向關係；公司股票報酬與前瞻性資訊揭露強度間，呈現顯著正向關係；應計項目與前瞻性揭露強度呈顯著負向相關，若公司擁有較高應計費用，前瞻性揭露強度較低；公司規模與前瞻性揭露強度呈顯著正向相關，若公司擁有較大之公司規模，前瞻性揭露強度會較高，前瞻性資訊揭露確實能改善投資人與公司之間的資訊不對稱問題；此外，本研究也發現前瞻性資訊揭露強度與公司未來盈餘有顯著正向關係，在股東會年報揭露更多前瞻性相關資訊的公司，在未來預期盈餘表現也會更佳。

摘要(英)

The forward-looking information disclosed in the annual report of the company is an important source of information for investors in their analysis. This article main-ly discusses the factors that influence forward-looking information disclosure. This research aims to explore whether the narrative forward-looking information disclosure intensity in the 10-K annual report of listed companies in the United States is related to company characteristics. In order to help investors truly understand the company’s current performance, stock compensation, and future development, rather than under-stand the company′s situation only through the financial report information that may be modified by managers or reduced accrued expense by managers. The purpose of this research is to reduce the information asymmetry between investors and the com-pany′s authorities by exploring the factors that influence forward-looking information disclosure.
This research uses text mining technology to collect and analyze the 10-K annual reports of US listed companies from year 2000 to 2018 which published in the Secur-ities and Exchange Commission (SEC) EDGAR database. Use text mining technology to search for forward-looking sentences in the management discussions and analysis part in the annual reports, and use Compustat and CRSP database to collect company balance sheet related indicators, earnings information, stock compensation and other information. Explore the impact of company’s operating performance-related variab-les on forward-looking information disclosure. In addition, this research addition-ally tests the relationship between forward-looking information disclosures and the com-pany′s future earnings.
The empirical results show that this research confirms that there is a significant negative relationship between company earnings performance and the intensity of for-ward-looking information disclosure; there is a significant positive relationship betw-een the stock return and the intensity of forward-looking information disclosure; accruals are significantly negatively correlated with the intensity of forward-looking disclosures. If the company has higher accrued expenses, the intensity of forward-looking disclosures will be lower; company size is significantly positively correlated with the intensity of forward-looking disclosures. If a company has a larger company size, the intensity of forward-looking disclosure will be higher.
Forward-looking information disclosure can indeed improve the information asy-mmetry between investors and the company. In addition, this study also found that th-ere is a significant positive relationship between the intensity of forward-looking info-rmation disclosure and the future earnings of the company. The company that disclose more forward-looking related information in the annual shareholder meeting will have better earnings performance in the future.

關鍵字(中)

★ 前瞻性資訊揭露
★ 年報文字揭露

關鍵字(英)

★ Forward-looking information
★ Information Disclosure

論文目次

摘要..................................... i
ABSTRACT................................. ii
目錄..................................... iv
表目錄................................... vi
圖目錄................................... vii
壹、緒論................................ 1
1-1 研究動機與目的........................ 1
1-2 研究架構............................. 5
貳、文獻探討............................ 7
2-1企業資訊揭露相關質性研究............... 7
2-2影響自願性揭露的因素................... 12
2-3 企業資訊揭露對未來盈餘的影響........... 19
参、研究設計與變數建構.................... 21
3-1假說發展.............................. 21
3-1-1 公司表現和前瞻性強度之關係.......... 21
3-1-2 未來盈餘表現與前瞻性資訊揭露內容的關係.... 27
3-2 研究方法............................. 28
3-2-1 樣本選擇........................... 28
3-2-2 依變數定義......................... 33
3-2-3 變數定義........................... 37
3-2-4 模型建立........................... 38
肆、實證結果與分析....................... 40
4-1 基本敘述統計與相關分析................ 40
4-2 迴歸分析............................. 43
4-2-1 前瞻性資訊揭露與公司特徵因素之關係.... 43
4-2-2 未來盈餘表現與前瞻性資訊揭露關係...... 48
伍、結論與建議........................... 51
5-1 研究結論與管理意涵..................... 51
5-2研究限制及對後續研究之建議............... 53
參考文獻.................................. 55
附錄...................................... 59

參考文獻

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指導教授

曹壽民(Shou-Min Tsao)

審核日期

2020-11-12

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