利用系統動態學建構電力產業差距模式探討台灣低碳轉型政策

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陳俊成(Chun-Cheng Chen) 查詢紙本館藏

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企業管理學系

論文名稱

利用系統動態學建構電力產業差距模式探討台灣低碳轉型政策
(Using system dynamics to build a gap model of the electricity power industry for exploring the policy of low-carbon transition in Taiwan)

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摘要(中)

工業化國家電力產業發展的主要目標在維持一個充足且負擔得起的電力供給，以供應一國產業發展與經濟成長的需求。電力系統逐步調整供電結構邁向低碳發電則是電力產業提高環境效率的新趨勢。然而使用成本較高的再生能源發電將衝擊電力產業的成本結構，更進一步影響電價導致電力產業在能源轉型中陷入兩難的境地。如何在管制電價與低碳能源使用之間取得平衡成為了政府能源政策所要關注的焦點。電力產業能源轉型是一個複雜且動態的過程，受到政府政策和國際燃料價格等因素的影響。因此，本研究採用系統動態學方法論去建構台灣電力產業的缺口模式，以探討台灣供電結構在能源轉型過程中的演變。藉由分析其系統結構以瞭解其系統行為，模擬並討論政府政策對再生能源發電的影響及其管理意涵。

摘要(英)

The primary objective of a regulated electric power industry in an industrialized country is the uninterrupted availability of electric power at an affordable price that supports the development of industry and economy. The shift towards low-carbon energy sources in the portfolio of power supply is a new development trend of electric power systems in order to improve environmental efficiency. However, the higher cost of renewable energy impacts the cost structure of the electric power industry, which can affect electricity rates and further cause the industry to enter energy transition traps. The focus of a government’s energy policy is how to achieve a balance between regulated electricity rates and adopting low-carbon energy sources. The energy transition for the electric power industry is a complex and dynamic process influenced by factors such as government policies and international fuel prices. Hence, this research adopts the system dynamics methodology to explore the evolution of Taiwan’s electric power industry during its energy transition, analyzes the system structure, and discusses the implications of policy and management regarding renewable energy sources.

關鍵字(中)

★ 能源轉型
★ 能源政策
★ 系統動態學
★ 缺口模式

關鍵字(英)

★ energy transition
★ energy mix
★ energy policy
★ energy security
★ system dynamics

論文目次

Chapter 1 Introduction..................................1
1.1 Research Background.................................1
1.2 Research Purpose....................................4
1.3 Research Process....................................7
1.4 Research Method.....................................7
1.5 Thesis Structure....................................9
Chapter 2 Literature Review............................11
2.1 Literature on Energy Transition....................11
2.2 SD Applications in the Electric Power Industry.....13
Chapter 3 System Dynamics Methodology..................17
3.1 Research Steps of System Dynamics..................17
3.2 Modeling Methods of System Dynamics................19
3.3 Model Validity of System Dynamics..................23
Chapter 4 Characteristics and Development of Taiwan’s Electric Power Industry................................25
4.1 General Characteristics of the Electric Power Industry...............................................25
4.1.1 There are significant differences in the construction time and cost of different electric power plants.................................................26
4.1.2 There exist economies of scale in electric power production.............................................27
4.1.3 The fuel cost is influenced by the international fluctuation of energy prices...........................27
4.2 Characteristics of Taiwan’s Electric Power Industry...............................................28
4.2.1 Electricity is produced and used immediately and cannot be exported or purchased........................28
4.2.2 Thermal power generation is the means to meet peak load growth............................................29
4.2.3 Electricity price adjustment is subject to political intervention...........................................29
4.3 Development and Evolution of Taiwan’s Electric Power Industry...............................................30
4.3.1 Reconstruction period............................31
4.3.2 Growth period....................................32
4.3.3 Mature period....................................32
4.3.4 Transitional period..............................33
Chapter 5 Modeling.....................................34
5.1 Qualitative Model..................................34
5.1.1 Power supply gap.................................35
5.1.2 Peak-load capacity gap...........................36
5.1.3 Carbon emissions gap.............................41
5.1.4 Electricity price gap............................43
5.2 Quantitative Model.................................47
5.2.1 Installed capacity of hydro and thermal power generation.............................................47
5.2.2 Installed capacity of nuclear power generation.............................................52
5.2.3 Installed capacity of wind and solar power generation.............................................56
Chapter 6 Results and Simulation.......................59
6.1 Model Verification.................................59
6.2 Simulation of System Behaviors at the Development Stages.................................................60
6.3 Scenario Simulation and Discussion.................62
Chapter 7 Conclusion and Suggestion....................66
References.............................................68
Appendix I. Calorific Value per Unit of Energy Product (for energy statistics only)...........................78
Appendix II. IPCC Guidelines for Carbon Dioxide, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide Emission Coefficients from Fuel Combustion.............................................80

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指導教授

張東生(Dong-Shang Chang)

審核日期

2020-11-17

推文