Ensemble forecasting of typhoon rainfall and floods over a mountainous watershed in Taiwan

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Title:	Ensemble forecasting of typhoon rainfall and floods over a mountainous watershed in Taiwan
Authors:	黃清勇;Hsiao, Ling-Feng;Yang, Ming-Jen;Lee, Cheng-Shang;Kuo, Hung-Chi;Shih, Dong-Sin;Tsai, Chin-Cheng;Wang, Chieh-Ju;Chang, Lung-Yao;Chen, Delia Yen-Chu;Feng, Lei;Hong, Jing-Shan;Fong, Chin-Tzu;Chen, Der-Song;Yeh, Tien-Chiang;Huang, Ching-Yuang;Guo, Wen-Dar;Lin, Gwo-Fong
Contributors:	地球科學學院大氣科學學系
Keywords:	data analysis;early warning systems;Ensemble forecast;Floods;Forecasting;Hydrology;Mathematical models;Mountainous watershed;mountains;prediction;probability;rain;Rainfall;Runoff;Runoff prediction;Taiwan;Typhoon rainfall;Typhoons;Watersheds;weather forecasting
Date:	2013-12-09
Issue Date:	2026-04-21 13:47:29 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	Elsevier;Elsevier B.V
Abstract:	摘要： •Ensemble forecast of typhoon tracks has a comparable skill to operational centers.•Ensemble forecast has better performance for rainfall than a deterministic forecast.•Ensemble prediction provides useful probabilistic information.•Runoff forecast over mountainous watershed is sensitive to rainfall forecast. In this study, an ensemble meteorological modeling system is one-way coupled with a hydrological model to predict typhoon rainfall and flood responses in a mountainous watershed in Taiwan. This ensemble meteorological model framework includes perturbations of the initial conditions, data analysis methods, and physical parameterizations. The predicted rainfall from the ensemble meteorological modeling system is then used to drive a physically distributed hydrological model for flood responses in the Lanyang basin during the landfall of Typhoon Nanmadol (2011). The ensemble forecast provides track forecasts that are comparable to the operational center track forecasts and provides a more accurate rainfall forecast than a single deterministic prediction. The runoff forecast, which is driven by the ensemble rainfall prediction, can provide uncertainties for the runoff forecasts during typhoon landfall. Thus, the ensemble prediction system provides useful probability information for rainfall and runoff forecasting. 出版者： Elsevier B.V 出版日期： 2013-12-09 出處： Journal of Hydrology, 2013-12, Vol.506, p.55-68 資源來源： ScienceDirect (Elsevier) Journals 版權： 2013 The Authors 識別號： ISSN: 0022-1694 識別號： ISSN: 1879-2707 識別號： EISSN: 1879-2707 識別號： DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.08.046
Appears in Collections:	[大氣科學學系] 期刊論文

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