| 摘要: | 摘要： This study aimed to identify optimal high-temperature indices to predict risks of all-cause mortality and outpatient visits for subtropical islanders in warm seasons (May to October). Eight high-temperature indices, including three single measurements (average, maximum and minimum temperature) and five composite indices (heat index, humidex, temperature humidity index, apparent temperature and wet-bulb globe temperature), and their standardized Z scores, were used in distributed lag non-linear models. Cumulative 8-day (lag zero to seven days) relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated, 1 and 2 standardized deviations above the medium (i.e., at 84.1th and 97.7th percentile, respectively), by comparing with Z scores for the lowest risks of mortality and outpatient visits as references. Analyses were performed for Taipei in north, Central Taiwan and Southern Taiwan. Results showed that standardized Z-values of high-temperature indices associated with the lowest health risk were approximately 0 in Taipei and Central Taiwan, and −1 in Southern Taiwan. As the apparent temperature was at Z=2, the cumulative 8-day mortality risk increased significantly, by 23% in Taipei and 28% in Southern Taiwan, but not in Central Taiwan. The maximum temperature displayed consistently a high correlation with all-cause outpatient visits at Z=1; with the cumulative 8-day RRs for outpatient visits increased by 7%, 3%, and 4% in the three corresponding areas. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated methods to compare multiple high-temperature indices associated with all-cause mortality and outpatient visits for population residing in a subtropical island. Apparent temperature is an optimal indicator for predicting all-cause mortality risk, and maximum temperature is recommended to associate with outpatient visits. The impact of heat varied with study areas, evaluated health outcomes, and high-temperature indices. The increased extreme heat is associated with stronger risk for all-cause mortality than for outpatient visits. ► Apparent temperature was the optimal high-temperature index in temperature–all-cause mortality study. ► Maximum temperature was the optimal high-temperature index in temperature–all-cause outpatient visits study. ► Extreme heat is associated with stronger risk for all-cause mortality than for outpatient visits.
其他題名： Sci Total Environ
出版者： Kidlington: Elsevier B.V
出版日期： 2012-06-15
出處： The Science of the total environment, 2012-06, Vol.427-428, p.41-49
版權： 2012 Elsevier B.V.
版權： 2015 INIST-CNRS
版權： Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
版權： Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 2012 Elsevier B.V.
識別號： ISSN: 0048-9697
識別號： ISSN: 1879-1026
識別號： EISSN: 1879-1026
識別號： DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.04.039
識別號： PMID: 22575378
識別號： CODEN: STENDL |
