全球暖化已改變水文循環，導致降水發生顯著變化，並對人類社會造成相關影響。一般而言，隨著大氣水氣增加所產生的熱力效應傾向於增強降水；相對地，動力效應則主要決定降水變化的區域分布，且其影響往往會抵銷部分熱力效應的貢獻。 本研究利用 ERA5 再分析資料，探討 1979 至 2023 年間熱帶海洋區域（30°N–30°S）極端降水的變化。極端降水定義為日累積降水量超過熱帶海洋降水分布固定第 95 百分位門檻值的事件。本研究比較兩個十年時段，1979–1988 年與 2014–2023 年，以量化近年來極端降水頻率與強度的變化。 研究結果顯示，動力效應主導了近幾十年熱帶海洋降水的變化，而熱力效應的影響相對較弱。增強的上升運動顯著提高了極端降水的發生頻率與降水強度，其中變化最為明顯的區域位於近赤道中太平洋。相較之下，由水氣變化所造成的熱力效應僅具有次要影響，且其作用大多被其他效應所抵銷。;Global warming has altered the hydrological cycle， leading to significant changes in precipitation and associated impacts on human society. In general， thermodynamic effects associated with increased atmospheric moisture tend to enhance precipitation under warming， whereas dynamic effects largely determine the regional distribution of precipitation changes and often offset thermodynamic contributions. This study investigates changes in extreme precipitation over the tropical ocean (30°N–30°S) during 1979–2023 using ERA5 reanalysis data. Extreme precipitation is defined as daily precipitation exceeding the fixed 95th percentile threshold of tropical-ocean precipitation. Two ten-year periods， 1979–1988 and 2014–2023， are compared to quantify recent changes in both the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation. The results show that dynamic effects dominate recent precipitation changes in the tropical ocean， while thermodynamic effects remain relatively weak. Enhanced upward motion substantially increases both the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation， with the largest changes occurring in the near-equatorial central Pacific. In contrast， thermodynamic effects associated with changes in moisture exert only a minor influence and are largely offset by other processes.
