面對歐盟碳邊境調整機制（Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism， CBAM）日趨 嚴格與台灣碳費預期上調至每公噸 1，200 元的雙重壓力，綠氫已成為維繫台灣出口製造 業與半導體產業國際競爭力的關鍵解方。本研究運用技術經濟分析（Techno- Economic Analysis， TEA）、敏感度分析及情境分析，比較鹼性水電解（Alkaline Water Electrolysis， AWE）與質子交換膜水電解（Proton Exchange Membrane Water Electrolysis， PEMWE）兩種產氫路徑的財務可行性與風險結構，並針對台灣特有的能源條件勾勒永 續發展藍圖。 研究設計兩情境:情境一為服務半導體供應韌性、全電網供電的 AWE 系統;情 境二為支援鋼鐵業去碳化、結合太陽光電與離峰電網的混合 PEMWE 系統。結果顯 示，AWE 雖具備較低的資本支出（Capital Expenditure， CAPEX），但其稅後內部報酬率 （Internal Rate of Return， IRR）僅 14.99%，與加權平均資本成本（Weighted Average Capital Cost， WACC）僅有 4.09 個百分點緩衝，且高度依賴高碳排電網，暴露於電價波動與範疇 二碳排風險之中。相對而言，PEMWE 雖面臨較高的 CAPEX，但憑藉動態操作彈性與台 灣風光互補優勢可使電解槽年運轉突破 5，000 小時，在基線情境下達成稅後 IRR 22.35%、 淨現值（Net Present Value， NPV）NTD 82.10 百萬元、折現回收期（Discounted Payback Period， DPBP）7 年的優異表現。2030 年情境分析進一步顯示，於積極碳定價與技術學 習效應加乘下，PEMWE 之 IRR 可躍升至 32%，氫氣均化成本（Levelized Cost of Hydrogen， LCOH）降至 NTD 404/kgH₂。總結而言，台灣氫能產業戰略須從「初期成本最小化」轉 向「主動管理長期碳風險」。本研究提出產、官、金三方量化整合策略:產業端應簽 署企業購售電合約鎖定綠電價格並擴大再生能源佔比;政府端應採取「設備 + 營運」 雙軌支持，建議導入 CAPEX 補助並輔以的電價優化，可大幅提升 IRR，藉此提升投資誘 因，另外生產補貼可對標美國 IRA 45V 與歐盟 Hydrogen Bank 進行設計;金融端應推動專 屬綠色授信機制，共同推進綠氫商業化與台灣產業之永續轉型。;Under mounting carbon pricing pressures from the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and Taiwan′s domestic carbon fee， green hydrogen has emerged as a strategic enabler for decarbonizing Taiwan′s export-driven manufacturing and semiconductor sectors. This study integrates techno-economic analysis (TEA)， sensitivity analysis， and scenario analysis to assess the financial viability of two electrolysis pathways， alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) and proton exchange membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE)， under Taiwan-specific conditions. Two scenarios are examined: a grid-connected AWE plant for semiconductor supply resilience， and a hybrid PEMWE system coupled with photovoltaic generation and off-peak grid electricity for steel industry decarbonization. Although AWE benefits from lower capital expenditure (CAPEX)， its grid dependency exposes the project to electricity price volatility and scope 2 emissions risk. PEMWE， despite higher CAPEX， exploits Taiwan′s complementary wind and solar seasonality to achieve stronger profitability and a shorter payback period， with competitiveness further strengthening by 2030 under aggressive carbon pricing and learning-curve effects. Taiwan′s hydrogen strategy must therefore pivot from minimizing upfront costs to actively managing long-term carbon risk. A tri-sector framework is proposed: enterprises should secure long-term green electricity through corporate power purchase agreements; the government should combine CAPEX subsidies with operational price relief to close the green premium; and financial institutions should deploy dedicated green credit facilities to lower the cost of capital. Collectively， these measures lay a financially robust and carbon-resilient foundation for commercializing green hydrogen in Taiwan.
