摘要 面對全球氣候變遷與 2050 淨零碳排目標，台灣作為高度仰賴化石燃料進口之孤島電網，能源系統去碳化已成為能源安全與減碳政策之重要議題。氨氣（Ammonia）作為具潛力的無碳燃料與氫能載體，在發電領域逐漸受到重視；然而，不同氨轉能（Ammonia-to-Power）技術路徑在減碳效益、建置成本與能源安全之間存在明顯權衡。 為辨識較符合台灣情境之氨轉能導入路徑，本研究建構「TEER 整合評估架構」，涵蓋技術（Technology）、環境（Environment）、經濟（Economy）與韌性（Resilience）四大構面。研究首先針對 12 條氨轉能路徑（涵蓋綠氨、藍氨與灰氨，搭配燃煤/燃氣混燒及 SOFC/PEMFC 燃料電池）進行生命週期碳足跡（LCA）與均化發電成本（LCOE）之量化試算；其次，結合模糊德爾菲法（FDM）與層級分析法（AHP），彙整台灣產官學研專家意見，建構綜合能源韌性指數（ERI）；最後，導入 VIKOR 多準則妥協解排序法，進行綜合決策與情境敏感度分析。 實證結果顯示三項主要發現：第一，客觀構面呈現明顯之「環境—經濟權衡」，綠氨燃料電池雖具有低碳排潛力，但目前仍面臨顯著綠色溢價；灰氨混燒雖具成本優勢，卻可能承受較高之碳排成本。第二，在韌性構面上，專家群體高度重視「重大工安與毒性洩漏風險」，且指出大型機組所提供之旋轉慣量對孤島電網穩定性具有重要意義，因此現階段混燒技術之韌性表現優於純氨燃料電池。第三，經 VIKOR 法排序後，「中東藍氨 + 氨混燒氣（20%）」在基準情境下取得最佳折衷方案，為現階段兼顧成本與減碳之過渡路徑；惟在深度脫碳或高度重視國安韌性之情境下，「澳洲綠氨混燒氣」之排序將明顯提升。 基於實證結果，本研究為台灣提出「先混燒、後純燒」之三階段導入方向，並建議政府評估較具誘因效果之碳定價機制，以降低灰氨路徑之長期依賴，同時推動「港電共構」與氨儲運安全管理，以降低鄰避效應與重大工安風險。本研究之量化模型與政策建議，可補充國內氨轉能系統性評估之研究缺口，並作為能源法規制定與發電事業體實務規劃之決策參考。;Abstract In the face of global climate change and the 2050 net-zero emissions target， decarbonizing the energy system is critical for Taiwan， an isolated island grid highly dependent on imported fossil fuels. Ammonia has garnered significant attention as a promising zero-carbon fuel and hydrogen carrier for power generation. However， different ammonia-to-power pathways present severe trade-offs among decarbonization benefits， deployment costs， and national security. To identify a suitable strategic pathway for Taiwan， this study develops a TEER-based integrated evaluation framework encompassing four dimensions: Technology， Environment， Economy， and Resilience. The study first conducts quantitative assessments of life-cycle carbon footprint (LCA) and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for 12 ammonia-to-power pathways， which combine green， blue， and gray ammonia with coal/gas co-firing and SOFC/PEMFC technologies. It then integrates the Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to synthesize expert opinions from Taiwan′s industry， government， and academia and to construct an Energy Resilience Index (ERI). Finally， the VIKOR multi-criteria compromise ranking method is applied for comprehensive decision-making and sensitivity analysis. The empirical results reveal three core insights. First， a clear environment-economy trade-off exists: while green ammonia fuel cells have substantial low-carbon potential， they currently face a significant green premium; conversely， gray ammonia co-firing has a cost advantage but may be exposed to higher carbon costs. Second， regarding energy resilience， experts highly prioritize major industrial safety and toxic leakage risks and emphasize that maintaining rotating inertia from large power plants is important for an isolated grid. As a result， co-firing pathways currently exhibit stronger resilience than pure-ammonia fuel-cell pathways. Third， the VIKOR results identify “Middle East Blue Ammonia + Gas Co-firing (20%)” as the best compromise solution in the baseline scenario， serving as a transitional pathway that balances cost and decarbonization. Under deep-decarbonization or high-resilience scenarios， “Australian Green Ammonia Gas Co-firing” becomes a preferred option. Based on these findings， this study proposes a three-phase roadmap of “co-firing first， pure-firing later” for Taiwan. It recommends evaluating an effective carbon-pricing mechanism to reduce long-term dependence on gray ammonia and promoting port-power plant integration with robust ammonia storage and transport safety management to mitigate NIMBY concerns and major industrial safety risks. The quantitative model and policy implications developed in this study help address the academic gap in systematic evaluation of ammonia-to-power pathways in Taiwan and provide a decision-support reference for energy regulation and utility planning.
