近二十年來，全球經濟環境受到金融危機、地緣政治衝突及 COVID-19 疫情等事件影響，使經濟政策不確定性持續升高，進而影響企業投資與創新決策。然而，企業面對高度政策不確定性時，其創新策略除受到外部環境影響外，亦可能受到經理人心理特質之影響。因此，本研究探討經濟政策不確定性如何影響企業創新，並進一步分析過度自信經理人是否改變企業創新決策，以及在高度政策不確定環境下推動激進式創新是否有助於提升企業財務績效。本研究以 2008 年至 2021 年美國上市櫃公司且鎖定創新密集產業為研究樣本，結合經濟政策不確定性指數、過度自信指標，以及專利自我引用數據，採用多元迴歸模型進行實證分析。實證結果顯示，第一，經濟政策不確定性會顯著抑制企業創新產出，且對激進式創新的負向影響較漸進式創新更為明顯。第二，過度自信經理人雖於文獻中被認為具有較高的風險承擔傾向，但本研究實證結果顯示，其並未顯著削弱經濟政策不確定性對企業創新的抑制效果，亦未使企業在高度政策不確定環境下顯著偏好激進式創新。第三，本研究未發現經濟政策不確定性、經理人過度自信與激進式創新三者之交互作用對企業財務績效具有顯著影響，顯示過度自信經理人在高度政策不確定環境下所推動之激進式創新，未能顯著提升企業財務績效。;Over the past two decades， financial crises， geopolitical conflicts， and the COVID-19 pandemic have driven a sustained rise in economic policy uncertainty (EPU)， significantly affecting corporate investment and innovation decisions. Beyond external environmental pressures， firms′ innovation strategies may also be shaped by managerial psychological characteristics. This study examines how EPU affects corporate innovation， whether overconfident managers alter innovation decisions， and whether pursuing radical innovation under high EPU contributes to improved firm performance. Using a sample of U.S. listed companies in innovation-intensive industries from 2008 to 2021， this study employs multiple regression models incorporating the EPU index， a multi-indicator measure of managerial overconfidence， and patent self-citations to distinguish radical from incremental innovation. Three main findings emerge. First， EPU significantly suppresses corporate innovation output， with a stronger negative effect on radical than incremental innovation. Second， although overconfident managers are widely characterized as having a higher risk-taking propensity， this study finds no evidence that overconfidence attenuates EPU′s inhibitory effect on innovation or leads firms to favor radical innovation under high uncertainty. Third， no significant interaction effect among EPU， managerial overconfidence， and radical innovation on firm performance is found， suggesting that radical innovation pursued by overconfident managers under high EPU does not significantly enhance firm financial performance.
