本研究旨在建立一套適用於中南半島之區域尺度機率式地震危害評估（PSHA）架構，以分析研究區主要地震危害分布、城市尺度危害特徵及震源模型不確定性對危害結果之影響。本研究整合地震目錄、活動斷層資料、震源模型、強地動衰減式、場址條件及邏輯樹架構，並利用 OpenQuake-engine 進行機率式地震危害分析。研究區依地體構造、地震活動特性、活動斷層分布及隱沒帶震源位置，劃分為不同震源類型，並分別採用適當之地震發生率模型。其中，部分震源納入斷層系統地震發生率（SHERIFS）模型進行建模，以考量單一斷層破裂與多重斷層共同破裂情境。模型不確定性則透過不同去叢集方法、經驗公式、地震發生率模型及滑移率測試加以評估，並以 Vs30 考量場址效應。結果顯示，中南半島之主要高危害區集中於緬甸中部實皆斷層系統、緬甸西部沿海、撣邦高原及喜馬拉雅東緣地區。城市尺度分析顯示，實皆、曼德勒、勃固及東吁之危害主要受實皆斷層系統控制，其中實皆與曼德勒具有較高危害水準；仰光與河內之危害相對較低，但仍受區域震源、鄰近斷層及局部場址條件影響。解聚結果進一步指出，鄰近實皆斷層系統之城市多受近距離中大型至大型地震控制，而仰光與河內之危害來源則較為分散。分析不確定性對於危害度的影響，顯示經驗公式為影響地震危害結果最明顯之因素，滑移率設定次之，而去叢集方法之影響相對有限。BPT 模型測試結果則顯示，近期歷史破裂事件可能降低未來 50 年內鄰近區域之 PGA。場址效應分析進一步顯示，若僅以固定 Vs30=760 m/s 之工程基盤條件代表全區場址，可能低估緬甸中部平原、仰光周邊及紅河三角洲等低 Vs30區域之地震危害。本研究建立之 PSHA 架構可有效呈現中南半島地震危害之主要空間分布特徵，並可作為區域地震危害評估、城市防災規劃及後續地震風險分析之參考。;This study establishes a regional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) framework for continental Southeast Asia to evaluate seismic hazard distribution， urban-scale hazard characteristics， and source-model uncertainty. Earthquake catalogs， active fault data， seismic source models， ground-motion prediction equations， site conditions， and a logic-tree framework are integrated， and calculations are performed. Selected sources are modeled with the Seismic Hazard and Earthquake Rate in Fault Systems (SHERIFS) model to consider multi-fault rupture scenarios. Site effects are represented by Vs30. The results show that high-hazard regions are mainly located along the Sagaing Fault system， western Myanmar， the Shan Plateau， and the eastern Himalayan margin. Urban-scale analyses indicate that Sagaing， Mandalay， Bago， and Taungoo are mainly controlled by the Sagaing Fault system， while Yangon and Hanoi show lower but still non-negligible hazard levels. Disaggregation results show that cities near the Sagaing Fault system are mainly controlled by nearby moderate-to-large and large earthquakes. Uncertainty analysis indicates that empirical scaling relations and slip rate settings are the main factors affecting the hazard results， while declustering methods have a limited effect. The Brownian Passage Time (BPT) model test suggests that recent historical ruptures may locally reduce future hazard near parts of the Sagaing Fault system. The site-effect comparison further shows that using a fixed engineering-bedrock condition of Vs30=760 m/s may underestimate seismic hazard in low-Vs30 regions， particularly in the central Myanmar plain， around Yangon， and in the Red River Delta. The proposed PSHA framework can support regional hazard assessment， urban disaster mitigation planning， and future seismic risk analysis.
