2018年9月28日印尼蘇拉威西省帕盧市發生震矩規模7.4地震，引發史上最嚴重的土壤液化災害之一，使巴拉羅亞(Balaroa)與佩托波(Petobo)整片社區因流滑(flow slide)而遭夷平，喬諾奧格(Jono Oge)地區則發生大範圍側向擴展(lateral spreading)。本研究藉由地球物理與地工技術整合分析架構，運用涵蓋三個行政區、共125組多頻道表面波分析法(MASW)剖面與22處N-SPT鑽孔資料，重建液化觸發機制。剪力波速剖面係以相位移法(Phase-shift)與頻率–波數法(F-K)頻散影像分析求得，並透過條件獨立特性(Conditional Independent Property)縮放法(Dai et al.， 2013；Xie et al.， 2016)外推至Vs30，據以劃分SNI 1726:2019場址類別並進行尖峰地表加速度(PGA)放大分析；同時，依Andrus等人(2004)之循環應力比(CSR)與循環阻抗比(CRR)分析，並輔以在地校準之Vs與N-SPT冪次迴歸關係式，求得深度20公尺範圍內之安全係數(FS)剖面，再依Juang等人(2002)方法進行液化機率篩選。液化嚴重程度則以新提出之「融合液化潛能指數」(Fused LPI)量化，該指數以相等權重（各0.5）結合Iwasaki等人(1981)之深度積分LPI與Ishihara(1985)之非液化表層（H1與H2）準則，並以具球型變異元模式之一般克利金法(Ordinary Kriging)繪製成連續危害分布圖。結果顯示，巴拉羅亞與佩托波之LPIfused峰值分別高達75.99與56.37，其分布位置恰與剪力波速低於215 m/s、地下水位淺於3.5公尺之區域高度吻合，顯示本架構於精準判定2018年實際破壞區位上，優於既有單一方法之評估結果。此外，多重重現期預測結果更凸顯此一隱憂：於500年、1，000年及2，500年重現期下，地表尖峰加速度將呈非線性攀升，分別達1，294 Gal、1，618 Gal與2，157 Gal，此一趨勢將使帕盧拉張盆地整體地表，於下一次主要地震破裂發生前即全面進入「極高」危害等級，其升級幅度已非現行耐震設計規範與土地使用規劃所能因應。;The Mw 7.4 Palu earthquake of September 28， 2018 produced one of the most catastrophic liquefaction disasters ever documented， liquefying entire neighborhoods into flow slides at Balaroa and Petobo and driving widespread lateral spreading across Jono Oge. This study reconstructs the triggering mechanism using an integrated geophysical and geotechnical framework built from 125 Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) profiles and 22 N-SPT boreholes spanning all three districts. Shear-wave velocity profiles， derived from phase-shift and frequency-wavenumber dispersion imaging and extrapolated to Vs30 via Conditional Independent Property scaling (Dai et al.， 2013; Xie et al.， 2016)， define SNI 1726:2019 site classes and PGA amplification， while depth-resolved Factor of Safety profiles to 20 m， computed from Andrus et al. (2004) CSR and CRR analysis and a locally calibrated Vs and N-SPT power-law regression， are screened probabilistically following Juang et al. (2002). Severity is then captured by a new Fused Liquefaction Potential Index that equally weights Iwasaki et al.′s (1981) depth-integrated LPI with Ishihara′s (1985) non-liquefiable crust (H1 and H2) criterion， mapped continuously through Ordinary Kriging with spherical variograms. Peak LPIfused values of 75.99 at Balaroa and 56.37 at Petobo align precisely with shear-wave velocities below 215 m/s and groundwater tables shallower than 3.5 m， outperforming single-method assessments at pinpointing the actual 2018 failure zones. Multi-return-period forecasts intensify the concern further， projecting a non-linear rise to 1，294 Gal， 1，618 Gal， and 2，157 Gal at the 500-， 1，000-， and 2，500-year return periods， a trajectory that pushes the entire floor of the Palu pull-apart basin into the Very High hazard category well before its next major rupture， which represents an escalation that current seismic design codes and land-use plans are not built to withstand.
