本文旨在探討美國上市公司 Form 10-K 年報中之前瞻性管理階層討論與分析（Management Discussion and Analysis， MD&A）語調，是否有助於揭示經理人記錄異常應計之動機，並降低市場對異常應計的錯誤定價。應計異象文獻指出，投資人可能高估應計項目之持續性而產生錯誤定價；而異常應計可能源自經理人傳遞未來績效之訊號動機，亦可能源自投機性盈餘管理動機。若投資人無法區分兩者，將可能錯估異常應計對未來績效之意涵。前瞻性 MD&A 語調作為管理階層對公司未來展望之文字揭露，可能提供投資人理解異常應計動機的輔助資訊。 本研究以 2002 至 2021 年美國上市公司 10-K 申報為樣本，整合 SEC EDGAR、Compustat、CRSP 與 I/B/E/S 等資料庫，最終取得 3，880 筆公司年度觀察值。本文以文字探勘衡量淨正向前瞻性語調，並採修正式 Jones 模型估計異常應計，再依投機性盈餘管理誘因將異常應計分解為投機型異常應計（ODA）與訊號型異常應計（SDA）。 實證結果顯示，前瞻性語調不具穩健增額資訊內涵，亦無法於全樣本下直接區辨經理人記錄異常應計之動機。然而，在低資訊不確定環境下，損益減少型訊號應計與較悲觀的前瞻性語調呈現一致關聯，顯示語調於特定情境仍具有條件性之訊號印證功能。相較之下，損益增加型訊號應計與樂觀語調之關聯並未呈現穩健結果，顯示語調之訊號功能具有不對稱性。此外，本文未發現前瞻性語調能顯著調節異常應計之持續性，亦未發現確認性語調能降低異常應計之錯誤定價。 整體而言，前瞻性 MD&A 語調並非普遍有效之市場定價工具，亦無法單獨作為辨識異常應計動機之穩健依據；惟其在低資訊不確定環境下仍可能發揮條件性之訊號印證功能。本研究補充企業文字揭露、異常應計動機與應計錯誤定價相關文獻，並指出前瞻性語調之資訊功能具有明確之適用邊界。;This study examines whether the forward-looking tone of Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) in U.S. firms’ Form 10-K filings helps reveal managers’ motivations for recording abnormal accruals and reduces accrual mispricing. Abnormal accruals may arise from signaling motives or opportunistic earnings management; if investors cannot distinguish between the two， they may misjudge their implications for future performance. Using U.S. listed firms’ 10-K filings from 2002 to 2021， this study combines data from SEC EDGAR， Compustat， CRSP， and I/B/E/S， obtaining 3，880 firm-year observations. Forward-looking net tone is measured through textual analysis. Abnormal accruals are estimated using the modified Jones model and decomposed into opportunistic-driven abnormal accruals (ODA) and signal-driven abnormal accruals (SDA) based on incentives for opportunistic earnings management. The results show that forward-looking tone does not provide robust incremental information content and cannot directly distinguish managers’ motives in the full sample. However， under low information uncertainty， income-decreasing signal-driven abnormal accruals are associated with more pessimistic forward-looking tone， suggesting that tone may play a conditional confirmatory role. This study does not find that forward-looking tone moderates the persistence of abnormal accruals or reduces accrual mispricing. Overall， forward-looking MD&A tone is not a universally effective market-pricing tool， nor can it independently serve as a robust indicator of abnormal accrual motivations. Nevertheless， it may provide conditional information under clearer information environments. This study contributes to the literature on corporate textual disclosure， abnormal accrual motivations， and accrual mispricing by identifying the boundary conditions of forward-looking tone.
