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    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/110511


    題名: 人口高齡化對銀行信用風險之影響;人口高齡化對銀行信用風險之影響
    作者: 郭士齊;CI, GUO SHIH
    貢獻者: 財務金融學系在職專班
    關鍵詞: 人口高齡化;銀行信用風險;逾期放款比率;女性董事;公司治理;Population Aging;Bank Credit Risk;Non-Performing Loan Ratio;Female Directors;Corporate Governance
    日期: 2026-06-15
    上傳時間: 2026-10-20 15:50:58 (UTC+8)
    出版者: 國立中央大學
    摘要: 本文以台灣本土銀行為研究對象,探討人口高齡化對銀行信用風險之影響,並進一步納入女性董事佔比、是否為官股及是否隸屬於金控等治理與組織特徵。研究期間涵蓋2005年至2024年,並採用年份固定效果與銀行固定效果進行實證分析。
    實證結果指出,高齡化曝險與銀行信用風險之間具有顯著正向關聯,表示當銀行的高齡化曝險程度較高時,其信用風險水準亦相對較高。女性董事佔比則僅於部分模型中呈現顯著負向關聯,顯示其對銀行信用風險之影響尚不一致;而女性董事於高齡化曝險情境下對信用風險之調節效果並不顯著。
    進一步分析發現,在不同所有權結構及組織型態下,高齡化曝險對銀行信用風險之影響存在差異。其中,官股與非官股銀行皆呈現顯著正向關聯,而金控與非金控銀行受高齡化曝險影響之程度則存在差異。
    至於女性董事佔比,在官股銀行中對信用風險呈現顯著正向關聯,在非官股銀行中則為顯著負向關聯,表示女性董事之治理效果會因所有權結構而異。此外,官股銀行女性董事於高齡化曝險情境下,對信用風險具有顯著之負向調節效果。
    另以信用風險年增量作為衡量指標時,各項核心解釋變數於各模型中多未達統計顯著水準,反映高齡化曝險對銀行信用風險變動之影響仍有待進一步觀察。
    整體而言,本文研究結果支持人口高齡化將提高銀行信用風險,並發現不同類型銀行受高齡化曝險及女性董事治理效果之影響存在差異。

    關鍵詞:人口高齡化、銀行信用風險、逾期放款比率、女性董事、公司治理;This study examines the impact of population aging on bank credit risk in Taiwan’s domestic banking industry. In addition, the study incorporates the proportion of female directors, state-owned and non-state-owned banks, as well as financial holding and non-financial holding banks as factors related to corporate governance and organizational structure. The sample period covers 2005 to 2024, and the empirical analysis is conducted using both year fixed effects and bank fixed effects models.
    The empirical results indicate that population aging exposure is positively associated with bank credit risk, suggesting that banks facing higher aging exposure tend to exhibit higher levels of credit risk. The proportion of female directors shows a significant negative effect only in certain models, while female directors do not exhibit a significant moderating effect on credit risk under the population aging exposure environment.
    Further analysis reveals that the effect of population aging exposure on bank credit risk differs across banks with different ownership structures and organizational types. Specifically, the results for both state-owned and non-state-owned banks consistently show a significant positive relationship, whereas financial holding and non-financial holding banks present different results. Regarding female directors, a significant positive relationship with credit risk is observed in state-owned banks, while a significant negative relationship is found in non-state-owned banks. In addition, female directors in state-owned banks demonstrate a significant negative moderating effect on credit risk under the population aging exposure environment. When the annual change in credit risk is used as the dependent variable, most core explanatory variables fail to reach statistical significance across models, implying that the effect of population aging exposure on changes in bank credit risk still requires further observation.
    Overall, the findings support the existence of a positive relationship between population aging and bank credit risk, while also indicating that the effects of population aging exposure and female directors′ governance role vary across different types of banks.

    Keywords: Population Aging, Bank Credit Risk, Non-Performing Loan Ratio, Female Directors, Corporate Governance
    顯示於類別:[財務金融學系碩士在職專班] 博碩士論文

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