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    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/110516


    題名: 技術指標濾網機制對交易策略績效之影響-以RSI與移動平均線為例;A Study on Trading Strategy Performance Using RSI and Moving Averages with Filtering Mechanisms
    作者: 吳雅筑;ZHU, WU YA
    貢獻者: 財務金融學系在職專班
    關鍵詞: 交易策略;技術分析;相對強弱指標;移動平均線;濾網機制;Trading Strategy;Technical Analysis;Relative Strength Index (RSI);Moving Average (MA);Filtering Mechanism
    日期: 2026-06-29
    上傳時間: 2026-10-20 15:51:53 (UTC+8)
    出版者: 國立中央大學
    摘要: 在金融市場中,技術分析為常見之交易決策工具之一。本研究進一步探討單一技術指標與多重指標(加入濾網機制)之交易策略績效差異。研究以相對強弱指標(RSI)與移動平均線(MA)為基礎,建構不同交易策略,以 MultiCharts 交易軟體進行歷史資料回測分析,研究期間為1999年1月8日至2025年8月20日,以評估各策略在報酬與風險表現上的差異。本研究依策略架構區分為四類:以RSI為主體之策略(策略A)、以移動平均線為主體之策略(策略B)、以RSI為主並結合均線濾網之策略(策略C),以及以移動平均線為主並結合RSI濾網之策略(策略D),以比較不同指標組合對交易績效之影響。
      在策略設計上,本研究採用RSI(14)作為計算期間,並以50作為市場多空條件作為濾網機制,以提升訊號品質並降低市場雜訊干擾。均線參數部分,本研究選取5日與20日、5日與60日,以及20日與60日等不同均線組合,以比較不同趨勢敏感度對交易績效之影響,實證結果顯示,在未考慮交易成本下,策略A(RSI單一策略)在平均報酬表現上最低,但因交易次數較多,使其累積報酬反而為各策略中最高,其伴隨較高的交易頻率與雜訊干擾,導致績效穩定性較低。相較之下,多重指標策略透過濾網機制提升交易品質,其中策略D(移動平均線為主結合RSI濾網)在平均單筆報酬與中長期績效表現上最為穩定。
      本研究之回測結果未納入交易成本,若考量手續費與交易稅,交易次數較高之單一指標策略其績效可能下降。綜合而言,透過移動平均線掌握市場趨勢,並結合RSI作為動能濾網,可有效降低市場雜訊干擾,提升交易策略之整體績效與穩定性。;Technical analysis is one of the most commonly used tools for trading decision-making in financial markets. This study compares single-indicator strategies with multi-indicator strategies using filters. RSI and Moving Averages (MA) are used to construct trading strategies, which are evaluated through backtesting on the MultiCharts platform from January 8, 1999 to August 20, 2025 to assess return and risk performance.
    The strategies are classified into four categories: RSI-based (Strategy A), MA-based (Strategy B), RSI with MA filter (Strategy C), and MA with RSI filter (Strategy D), allowing comparison of different indicator combinations. In strategy design, RSI(14) with a threshold of 50 is used to distinguish between bullish and bearish market conditions and to serve as a filter to improve signal quality and reduce noise. Three MA combinations—(5,20), (5,60), and (20,60)—are tested to examine the effects of different trend sensitivities.
    Empirical results show that, without transaction costs, Strategy A (RSI-only) has the lowest average return per trade but the highest cumulative return due to high trading frequency, though with lower stability. In contrast, multi-indicator strategies improve trade quality, with Strategy D (MA with RSI filter) showing the most stable performance in both average return and medium- to long-term results.
    Transaction costs are not included. When commissions and taxes are considered, high-frequency strategies may perform significantly worse. Overall, combining Moving Averages for trend identification with RSI as a momentum filter reduces market noise and improves both performance and stability.
    顯示於類別:[財務金融學系碩士在職專班] 博碩士論文

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