本論文在探討預測市場在金融科技與區塊鏈推動興起的背景下，針對其介於衍生性商品、非法賭博與資訊服務間的法律灰色地帶進行研究。系統性研究分析美國商品期貨交易委員會之行政執法與最新司法實務，解析美國法制中如何透過公共利益審查、釐定聯邦先占原則，以及確立政治選舉事件契約與嚴懲政府公職人員內線交易來落實聯邦專屬管轄。同時，回顧台灣司法實務，以國人跨境參與 Polymarket 涉及 2024 總統大選遭求刑為例，檢視現行《期貨交易法》、《刑法》賭博罪與選罷法等之法制適用衝突。最後，基於利弊分析與台美法制比較，提出台灣開放預測市場之三階段政策路徑芻議：短期引進金融創新監理沙盒、中期修訂期法增列事件契約與公共利益審查、長期落實洗錢防制、內線交易與市場操縱監管，為我國法制接軌國際金融科技提供具體可操作之修法參考與政策建議。;Driven by fintech and blockchain innovations， prediction markets occupy a complex legal grey area intersecting derivatives， gambling， and information services. This thesis systematically analyzes U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) enforcement and recent judicial precedents to dissect how U.S. jurisprudence asserts exclusive federal jurisdiction via public interest reviews， federal preemption， election event contracts， and insider trading prohibitions. Turning to Taiwan， the study evaluates recent cross-border prosecutions involving the 2024 presidential election on Polymarket， exposing critical statutory conflicts among the Futures Trading Act， criminal gambling provisions， and election laws. Based on a comparative cost-benefit analysis， this paper proposes a three-stage policy roadmap for Taiwan: a short-term rollout via the financial regulatory sandbox; a mid-term amendment to the Futures Trading Act incorporating event contracts and public interest reviews; and a long-term implementation of anti-money laundering， insider trading， and market manipulation oversight. Ultimately， this research provides concrete， actionable legislative and policy recommendations to align Taiwan’s legal framework with international fintech standards.
