本研究以「結構-行為-績效」（SCP）框架為基礎，分析台灣水泥產業於 2019至 2024年間之競爭動態。研究動機源於三項反常的市場矛盾：進口滲透 率攀升，但本土集中度（CR4）與價格卻同步上漲；產業由出口國翻轉為進口消 化者，大廠定價力卻反升；以及減碳政策在客觀上強化了既有的極端寡占。 研究發現，在市場結構面，台灣水泥市場已收斂為極度寡占，2024年國產 CR4突破 90.44%，HHI達3，069點，其肇因於礦權封鎖與大廠掌控全台 80%港口 儲槽咽喉所構成的「結構性斷層」。在廠商行為面，除了驗證出廠價長達 21年 的「價格僵固性」外，本研究更提出「法規策略行為」概念，指出大廠透過申 請反傾銷稅與推動台版碳邊境調整機制（CBAM），主動將外部壓力轉化為防禦 性的制度壁壘。在經營績效面，2022年國際煤價飆漲的壓力測試展現了廠商的 命運分化，證明在相同結構下，廠商行為（如本業利基差異化、循環經濟與業 外轉投資）決定了其在逆境中的存活能力。 本研究的核心理論貢獻在於打破單向 SCP 的靜態因果，識別並建構出「碳 費壁壘」、「不對稱淘汰」與「法規策略」三條動態反饋迴路。 實證結果指出，當市場存在嚴重的結構性斷層與法規操作空間時，Salvo （2010）的進口制衡理論將觸碰其適用邊界；在台灣碳定價時代，外部衝擊越 強，寡占格局反而越穩固，形塑出一個具備主動自我複製能力的動態系統。;Based on the Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) framework， this study analyzes the competitive dynamics of Taiwan′s cement industry from 2019 to 2024. The research is motivated by three market paradoxes: an increasing import penetration rate accompanied by simultaneous rises in domestic market concentration (CR4) and prices; the industry′s reversal from an exporter to an import consumer while major manufacturers′ pricing power paradoxically strengthened; and decarbonization policies objectively reinforcing the existing extreme oligopoly. The findings reveal that， in terms of market structure， Taiwan′s cement market has converged into an extreme oligopoly. In 2024， the domestic CR4 exceeded 90.44%， and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) reached 3，069. This is attributed to a "structural fault line" formed by the blockade of mining rights and major manufacturers′ control over 80% of port storage silos critical bottlenecks across Taiwan. Regarding firm conduct， in addition to verifying a 21-year "price stickiness" in ex-factory prices， this study proposes the concept of "regulatory strategic behavior." It highlights that major manufacturers actively transform external pressures into defensive institutional barriers by applying for anti-dumping duties and promoting the Taiwanese Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). In terms of business performance， the stress test of surging international coal prices in 2022 demonstrated a divergence in 3 manufacturers′ fates， proving that under identical structures， firm conduct (e.g.， core-business niche differentiation， circular economy practices， and non-core investments) dictates their survival capabilities in adversity. The core theoretical contribution of this study lies in breaking the static causality of the unidirectional SCP paradigm by identifying and constructing three dynamic feedback loops: "carbon fee barriers，" "asymmetric elimination，" and "regulatory strategies." Empirical results indicate that when severe structural fault lines and room for regulatory manipulation exist in the market， Salvo’s (2010) theory of import discipline reaches its applicable limits. In Taiwan′s era of carbon pricing， stronger external shocks paradoxically entrench the oligopolistic landscape， shaping a dynamic system capable of proactive self-replication.
