以美國數據校準的數值分析確認上述發現。情境A使資本存量增加0.63\%，消費等值變量（CEV）為0.82\%；情境B帶動長照消費擴張5.42\%，但資本累積較弱，CEV僅為0.55\%。 敏感性分析確認，效用與CEV排名在實證相關的參數範圍內均穩健。 上述結果顯示，在勞動稅率與資本稅率維持不變的前提下，遺贈稅收入的結構性重分配在兩種設計下皆能產生正向的福利提升，且生產面專款專用在參數空間內全面嚴格優於消費面專款專用。;This paper examines the macroeconomic and welfare consequences of alternative earmarking designs for long-term care (LTC) subsidies within a dual-sector overlapping generations (OLG) model subject to Baumol′s cost disease.
Motivated by Taiwan′s 2017 estate tax reform， which earmarks incremental bequest tax revenues for a dedicated LTC fund， the analysis compares two earmarking regimes: a production-side subsidy to LTC providers (Scenario~A) and a consumption-side co-payment reduction for households (Scenario~B).
The model features a capital-intensive composite goods sector and a labor-intensive LTC sector， with households exhibiting warm-glow bequest motives. The steady-state competitive equilibrium is shown to exist and be unique under regularity conditions on preference and production parameters. Two analytical results are established. First， the utility-based welfare ranking between the two regimes is invariant to the sectoral productivity gap， provided the LTC sector is more labor-intensive than the composite goods sector. Second， production-side earmarking dominates through a resource-saving channel: by substituting subsidized input for private intermediate input， Scenario~A releases composite goods sector resources and supports higher capital accumulation.
Numerical analysis calibrated to U.S. data confirms these findings. Scenario~A generates a $0.63\%$ increase in the capital stock and a consumption-equivalent variation (CEV) of $0.82\%$. Scenario~B delivers a $5.42\%$ expansion in LTC consumption but produces inferior capital accumulation and a lower CEV of $0.55\%$. Sensitivity analysis confirms that both the utility-based and CEV rankings are robust across empirically relevant parameter ranges. These findings indicate that the structural reallocation of bequest tax revenue---holding labor and capital income tax rates fixed---generates positive welfare gains under both designs， with production-side earmarking strictly dominating throughout the parameter space.
