本研究以 2013 年 1 月至 2025 年 12 月之月資料，將台灣房地產市場劃分為北部、中部與南部，選取總體與區域供需、金融及市場預期等變數，透過主成分分析建構區域房地產景氣指標，並轉換為景氣燈號。實證結果顯示，三區景氣具有共同循環趨勢，但波動幅度與政策反應存在差異。升息政策對北部與南部景氣具短期負向影響，新青安政策則對三區產生短期正向效果，但效果隨時間遞減。另以 SARIMA 模型進行預測，結果顯示本研究建構之指標具一定預測能力，可作為判斷區域房市景氣與政策效果之參考。;This study uses monthly data from January 2013 to December 2025 to construct regional real estate business cycle indicators for Taiwan. The housing market is divided into northern， central， and southern regions. Variables related to macroeconomic conditions， regional supply and demand， financial factors， and market expectations are selected and integrated through principal component analysis. The resulting indicators are further transformed into a signallight system to improve interpretability.
The empirical results show that the three regions share a common cyclical pattern but differ in fluctuation magnitude and policy responses. The interest rate hikes had short-term negative effects on the real estate markets in northern and southern Taiwan， while the response in central Taiwan was relatively mild. In contrast， the New Qing-A Housing Loan Program generated positive short-term effects in all three regions， but these effects gradually weakened over time. In addition， the SARIMA forecasting results indicate that the constructed indicators possess a certain degree of predictive ability. Overall， the indicators developed in this study provide useful references for evaluating regional housing market conditions and policy effects in Taiwan.
