本文建立一個雙能源部門動態隨機一般均衡模型，評估台灣氣候政策之總體經濟與福利意涵。透過納入跨期減碳資本與環境偏好之設定，本文分析在不同財政政策與綠能基礎建設占比下，外生衝擊之傳導機制。研究結果顯示出若將碳稅收入專款專用於綠能補貼，將形成順循環之財政限制，導致氣候轉型資金於能源危機期間急遽緊縮；反之，採行統籌分配制度或擴增綠能基礎建設，則能有效提升總體經濟韌性。此外，福利評估顯示，台灣現行碳費費率遠低於社會最適水準；在具文獻支持之環境偏好設定下，提高碳稅可使總體福利呈單調遞增。即使假設大眾對環境品質幾近漠不關心之極端情境下，理論最適稅率仍顯著高於現行碳費費率。為提升台灣能源的結構韌性，需採行更嚴格的碳定價機制，並將綠能補貼與碳費收入脫鉤。;This paper develops a dual-energy DSGE model to evaluate the macroeconomic and welfare implications of Taiwan′s climate policies. Incorporating intertemporal abatement capital and environmental preferences， we analyze how shocks propagate under distinct fiscal rules and green infrastructure capacities. Our analysis reveals a critical vulnerability: earmarking carbon tax revenues exclusively for green subsidies creates a pro-cyclical fiscal constraint， causing climate funding to contract sharply during energy crises. Conversely， adopting a consolidated budget or expanding green infrastructure enhances macroeconomic resilience. Furthermore， welfare evaluations demonstrate that Taiwan′s current carbon fee is substantially below the social optimum. Raising the carbon tax yields monotonically increasing aggregate welfare under literature-supported environmental preferences. Crucially， even under counterfactual assumptions of near-total public indifference， the theoretical optimal tax remains significantly higher than the current carbon fee rate. Achieving structural energy resilience requires stricter carbon pricing and shielding renewable subsidies from volatile pollution revenues.
