麻六甲海峽是一個具有戰略重要性且對氣候高度敏感的熱帶海洋咽喉地帶，全球氣候變異與季風強迫在此強烈調節海洋生態系統的穩定性。儘管其具有重要的生態意義，能解析氣候遙相關作用時序的整合性物理—生地化評估仍相當有限。為填補此知識缺口，本研究利用 1985 至 2025 年的多年代衛星觀測與再分析資料，探討深水北部區域（海洋通道，Oceanic Gateway）與淺水南部區域（沿岸廊道，Coastal Conduit）中熱壓力、生物生產力與碳酸鹽系統動態的時空變異。結果顯示，研究期間海表溫度呈現顯著的區域性升溫趨勢，增幅為每年 0.01–0.03 °C。本研究的一項核心發現，是確認了一種序列式生態系統響應機制，其中印度洋偶極子（Indian Ocean Dipole， IOD）強迫會啟動後續連鎖性的生物與化學變化階段。透過超前—滯後分析架構，本研究發現 IOD 強迫會在一個月滯後後引發葉綠素濃度快速增加（r = 0.43；p = 8.50 × 10⁻¹⁶），接著在三個月滯後後出現顯著海洋酸化（pH：r = −0.39；p = 2.849 × 10⁻¹³），最後在五個月滯後後達到熱壓力峰值（r = 0.44；p = 5.12 × 10⁻²⁴）。北部區域中海面溫度與 pH 之間的耦合關係極為強烈，且在一個月超前時達到顯著相關（r = −0.64；p = 7.989 × 10⁻³⁹），證實熱異常會立即驅動化學脆弱性的升高。時間序列分析進一步指出，自 2016 年以來出現一個關鍵的體制轉變，其特徵為長期熱滯留以及熱恢復窗口的喪失。這也為 2024 年破紀錄的最高強度熱異常奠定背景，當時區域海面溫度較歷史平均值高出超過 2.5 個標準差。根據 1998、2010、2016 與 2024 年的主要熱衝擊事件，本研究指出高強度複合極端事件的重現週期已縮短至約 6–8 年。這些定量結果為區域性早期預警系統提供了明確的實證基礎，可為海洋熱浪提供五個月的預測窗口，以支持永續發展目標 13.1 的氣候韌性目標；同時也可為海洋酸化提供三個月的預警窗口，以支持永續發展目標14.3。最後，本研究所揭示的空間不對稱性顯示，麻六甲海峽需要採取雙分區管理策略：北部區域應優先強化全球氣候減緩行動，而南部區域則應著重於控制陸源逕流，以維護麻六甲海峽的長期生態韌性。;The Malacca Strait is a strategic and climatically sensitive tropical chokepoint where global climate variability and monsoonal forcing strongly regulate the stability of marine ecosystems. Despite its ecological significance， integrated physical biogeochemical assessments that resolve the timing of climate teleconnections remain limited. Addressing this knowledge gap， this study utilizes multi-decadal satellite observations and reanalysis data from 1985 to 2025 to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of thermal stress， biological productivity， and carbonate dynamics across the deep North Area (Oceanic Gateway) and the shallow South Area (Coastal Conduit). Results reveal a significant regional warming trend in sea surface temperature (SST) of 0.01-0.03 degrees Celsius per year over the study period. A fundamental discovery of this research is the characterization of a sequential ecosystem response mechanism in which Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) forcing initiates cascading biological and chemical phases. By utilizing a lead-lag framework， this study identifies that IOD forcing leads to a rapid increase in chlorophyll a at a one-month lag (r = 0.43; p = 8.50 × 10-16)， followed by significant ocean acidification at a three-month lag (r = −0.39; p = 2.849 × 10-13 for pH)， and culminates in a peak thermal stress at a five-month lag (r = 0.44; p = 5.12 × 10-24). The coupling between SST and pH in the North Area is exceptionally strong (r = −0.64; p = 7.989 × 10-39) at a one-month lead， confirming that thermal anomalies drive immediate chemical vulnerability. The temporal analysis identifies a critical regime shift since 2016， characterized by chronic heat retention and the loss of a thermal recovery window. This set the stage for the record-breaking 2024 highest-intensity thermal anomaly， in which regional SST surged by more than 2.5 standard deviations above the historical average. Based on the major thermal shocks in 1998， 2010， 2016， and 2024， this study identifies a shortening of the return period to approximately 6 to 8 years for high-intensity compound extremes. These quantitative findings provide a definitive empirical basis for a regional Early Warning System， offering a five-month predictive window for Marine Heatwaves to support SDG 13.1 for climate resilience and a three-month window for acidification to support SDG 14.3. Ultimately， the documented spatial asymmetry necessitates a bi-zonal management strategy， prioritizing global climate mitigation in the North and local terrestrial runoff control in the South to safeguard the long-term resilience of the Malacca Strait.
