本研究透過整合貝里斯堡礁系統（Belize Barrier Reef System， BBRS）A–K 各礁區的熱壓力、海洋熱浪診斷、光學與水質條件、環流，以及碳酸鹽系統代理指標，評估其珊瑚白化脆弱度。分析資料包含 1985–2025 年的海表溫度紀錄、度加熱週（Degree Heating Weeks）、海洋熱浪（Marine Heatwave）指標、大尺度氣候指數、光學指標、表層海流與風場，以及碳酸鹽系統變數，用以評估區域氣候強迫與地方環境條件如何共同影響白化風險。本研究旨在量化長期熱壓力趨勢，檢視氣候變異與環流的作用，比較地方水質壓力因子，並辨識 BBRS 各區域在脆弱度與恢復力上的空間差異。研究結果顯示，白化脆弱度具有明顯的空間異質性，且無法僅以溫度解釋。A區為急性多重壓力熱點，具有最高的事件年度加熱週、最強的海洋熱浪嚴重程度，以及偏高的光學壓力指標。I區則代表一種慢性多重壓力環境，具有最高的度加熱週事件年發生頻率、最高的懸浮顆粒物與葉綠素相關訊號，以及相對較低的流速。相較之下，K區可能具有較高的環境緩衝能力，因其同時具備最高的平均流速與最清澈的光學條件；而 J區則顯示，較少的事件年並不必然代表較低風險，因為偶發性的高強度熱壓力仍可能造成顯著影響。度加熱週與海洋熱浪的比較結果指出，兩種指標對珊瑚礁評估皆不可或缺：度加熱週可反映累積熱暴露程度，而 海洋熱浪嚴重程度則能辨識突發且具生態重要性的極端事件。整體而言，本研究支持以站點解析度為基礎的多重壓力框架進行貝里斯珊瑚礁監測與管理，並強調在持續海洋暖化下，透過地方行動降低逕流與水質退化，可提升珊瑚礁的抗性與恢復能力。;This research evaluates coral-bleaching vulnerability across the Belize Barrier Reef System (BBRS) by integrating thermal stress， marine heatwave diagnostics， optical and water-quality conditions， circulation， and carbonate-system proxies across reef sites A–K. The analysis combines sea surface temperature records from 1985–2025 with Degree Heating Weeks (DHW)， marine heatwave (MHW) metrics， large-scale climate indices， optical indicators， surface current and wind fields， and carbonate system variables to assess how regional climate forcing and local environmental conditions jointly shape bleaching risk. The study aims to quantify long-term thermal trends， examine the role of climate variability and circulation， compare local water-quality stressors， and identify spatial patterns of vulnerability and resilience across the BBRS. Results show that bleaching vulnerability is spatially heterogeneous and cannot be explained by temperature alone. Site A emerges as an acute multi-stressor hotspot， characterized by the highest event-year DHW， the strongest MHW severity， and elevated optical stress indicators. Site I represents a chronic multi-stressor environment， with the highest frequency of DHW event years， the highest suspended particulate matter and chlorophyll-related signatures， and relatively low current speed. In contrast， Site K appears comparatively buffered because it combines the strongest mean current speed with the clearest optical conditions， while Site J shows that fewer event years do not necessarily imply lower risk when episodic thermal severity is high. The comparison between DHW and MHW indicates that both metrics are necessary for reef assessment: DHW captures cumulative heat exposure， whereas MHW severity identifies abrupt and ecologically important extremes. Overall， the findings support a site-resolved， multi-stressor framework for coral-reef monitoring and management in Belize， emphasizing that local actions to reduce runoff and water-quality degradation can improve reef resistance and recovery under ongoing ocean warming.
