本研究之貢獻在於提供一套兼具理論基礎與實務可操作性的移轉期風險評估模式，並以實證資料驗證其有效性，對主管機關與民間業者於移轉規劃、契約設計與風險管理上具有參考價值。研究亦指出限制，包括樣本數受限於公開案例、某些指標資料取得困難，建議未來可擴展跨國比較或引入更多即時監測資料以提升模型通用性與預測能力。;This study， from a practical perspective， examines performance management challenges faced by contracting authorities and private entities during the transfer phase of Public–Private Partnership (PPP) projects (BOT: Build–Operate–Transfer). By analyzing the positions of both parties and their interaction dynamics， the study evaluates the incentive and risk-allocation logic underlying the transfer process. The investigation covers both (i) transfer procedures initiated through termination prior to the end of the concession period and (ii) transfer procedures occurring upon expiry of the concession term. The study outlines relevant contractual and execution procedures， identifies major sources of risk， and discusses associated legal issues. Based on a synthesis of literature and practical experience， and guided by legal-economic efficiency principles， the study proposes actionable recommendations for the performance management of PPP asset transfers. It also develops contractual incentive mechanisms and communication platforms to support relevant agencies in reviewing and refining applicable laws and contract templates.
The purpose of this research is to develop a systematic and operational risk-assessment model for PPP projects during the transfer phase， using a qualitative research approach. The model is validated through interviews， questionnaire surveys， further in-depth interviews， and an analysis of real cases from the past decade. The study is motivated by the observation that， when a BOT project ends its operating period and is transferred back to the competent authority， risks related to finance， technology， contractual terms， and governance often lead to delayed fulfillment， declines in public service quality， and/or financial losses. However， current transfer reviews are largely based on experiential judgments and lack specific quantitative tools， resulting in insufficient risk early warning and inadequate response planning.
The research objectives include: (1) constructing an indicator system covering PPP laws and institutions; finance (cash flow and liabilities); technology (equipment and technology transfer); contracts (clause flexibility and risk allocation); operations (service performance and maintenance capability); and asset transfer; (2) confirming indicator weights through expert input and establishing a risk-construct evaluation model; and (3) validating the risk-construct approach using real case studies.
In terms of methodology， the study first conducts a literature review and expert interviews to compile initial indicators. It then uses statistical procedures， including regression analysis， to derive weights for the risk indicators. Factor analysis is employed to establish risk constructs， thereby generating actionable management indicators. The weighting of indicators is determined through expert questionnaire surveys to ensure that the relative importance of dimensions and sub-indicators is appropriately captured. The risk-construct evaluation model is developed via a multi-stage mixed-method design: multivariate regression and factor analysis are used to verify the relationships between indicators and actual transfer outcomes. To assess robustness， the model is cross-validated through real-case scenario evaluations， testing whether the proposed risk constructs remain credible under different policy and market conditions.
The case data sources include publicly available information for BOT projects in Taiwan from the past decade that have been completed or are currently undergoing transfer procedures; transfer review records from competent authorities; court judgments; and， for some cases， publicly available financial statements. The empirical findings indicate that the identified key risk constructs demonstrate credibility across most case evaluations.
Based on the results， the study provides the following policy and operational recommendations: (1) establish standardized tools and review procedures for transfer risk assessment， incorporating quantitative indicators as gatekeeping criteria for transfer approval; (2) require technical and document handover audits prior to transfer to ensure the complete handover of knowledge and maintenance records; (3) implement financial contingency mechanisms (e.g.， performance guarantees， staged retention payments， or reinsurance arrangements) to mitigate liquidity risk; and (4) strengthen contractual design by clearly specifying transfer timelines， acceptance standards， and liability for breach， and by establishing third-party supervision mechanisms.
This study’s contribution lies in providing an empirically validated transfer-phase risk-assessment model that combines theoretical foundations with practical applicability. The model offers reference value for competent authorities and private operators in transfer planning， contract design， and risk management. The study also identifies limitations， including restricted sample sizes due to the availability of public cases and difficulties in obtaining data for certain indicators. Future research is recommended to expand into cross-country comparisons and incorporate more real-time monitoring data to improve generalizability and predictive performance.
