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    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/111381


    題名: 氣候極端與颱風影響下西北太平洋海洋熱浪與上層海洋增暖之時空變異;Spatiotemporal Variability of Marine Heatwaves and Upper-Ocean Warming Associated with Climate Extremes and Typhoon Influences in the Northwestern Pacific
    作者: 阮喬艷;DIEM, NGUYEN THI KIEU
    貢獻者: 環境科技博士學位學程
    關鍵詞: 海洋熱浪;熱帶氣旋;上層海洋熱力結構;Marine heatwaves;Tropical cyclone;Upper-ocean thermal structure
    日期: 2026-07-06
    上傳時間: 2026-10-20 17:20:41 (UTC+8)
    出版者: 國立中央大學
    摘要: 西北太平洋為全球熱帶氣旋(tropical cyclone, TC;以下稱颱風)活動最頻繁之海域,近年海洋熱浪(marine heatwave, MHW)發生頻率與颱風破壞潛力均呈上升趨勢。本論文整合東海(ECS)、南海(SCS)及西太平洋(WP)三大海域之四項觀測研究,利用1993至2025年之衛星、再分析及最佳路徑資料,探討海表MHW究竟能為颱風增強提供實質能量,抑或僅為與次表層解耦之淺層熱異常。第一,海表MHW頻率與上層海洋熱含量(UOHC)及上層100公尺平均水溫(T100)於非颱風季呈中度相關(r = 0.4–0.6),惟於颱風季趨於解相關(熱帶WP與SCS海域 r→0);La Niña與負太平洋年代際振盪(PDO)相位之複合氣候態,可將多層熱力極端事件放大約40%,超出單一相位效應之總和。第二,於91個東海颱風個案中,海表MHW之存在無法區分增強與非增強個案;即使內核UOHC偏高,增強機率亦僅約40%,主要受限於東海較淺之混合層(<25公尺)。第三,於1,027個颱風眼位置樣本中,MHW雖與較高颱風強度呈統計關聯,惟仍有151個個案(約15%)於活躍MHW環境下減弱,顯示TC–MHW耦合為非確定性過程。第四,於2,402個颱風通過事件中,颱風引致之海表降溫幅度隨強度等級遞增,南海較西太平洋高47%;猛烈颱風(≥54 m/s)通過後三日內,MHW嚴重度等級最多下降0.75級,其路徑右側之降溫不對稱與近慣性共振機制相符。綜上所述,海表MHW深度過淺,不足以供應颱風增強所需能量,且結構脆弱,難以於颱風通過後存續;次表層熱力結構較海表MHW狀態更適合作為颱風強度業務預報之海洋輸入因子。;The Northwestern Pacific, the world′s most active tropical cyclone (TC) basin, faces rising marine heatwave (MHW) frequency and destructive potential. This dissertation tests whether surface MHWs energize TC intensification or are shallow anomalies decoupled from the subsurface, through four studies across the East China Sea (ECS), South China Sea (SCS), and Western Pacific (WP) using 1993–2025 satellite, reanalysis, and best-track records. First, surface MHW frequency co-varies with upper-ocean heat content (UOHC) and mean upper 100 m temperature (T100) outside the TC season (r = 0.4–0.6) but decorrelates during it r→0, tropical WP and SCS), while compound La Niña/negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation phases amplify multi-layer extremes ~40% beyond single-phase sums. Second, among 91 ECS TCs, surface MHW presence fails to discriminate intensifying from non-intensifying cases, and high inner-core UOHC yields only ~40% intensification probability, limited by the <25 m ECS mixed layer. Third, across 1,027 TC-eye positions, MHWs are statistically associated with greater intensity, yet 151 (~15%) TCs weaken under active MHWs, demonstrating non-deterministic coupling. Fourth, across 2,402 passages, TC-induced SST cooling scales with intensity class, is 47% greater in the SCS than in the WP, and suppresses MHW severity by up to 0.75 categories within three days of violent typhoon (≥54 m/s) passage, showing right-of-track asymmetry consistent with near-inertial resonance. Surface MHWs are too shallow to fuel intensification and too fragile to survive TC passage; subsurface thermal structure is a more appropriate predictor than surface MHW state for operational intensity forecasting.
    顯示於類別:[環境科技博士學位學程] 博碩士論文

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