台灣高科技產業如半導體與平面顯示器等一路發展過來，已累積了多年的高科技量產經驗與基礎。近年來由於綠能及節能產業蓬勃發展，吸引很多企業競相投入太陽能及LED的生產，尤其薄膜太陽能生產與LCD某些製程的共通性，更是吸引相關人才與資金的大舉投入。 本研究將利用美國專利局（United States Patent and Trademark Office, USPTO）專利檢索之專利指標作為估計技術生命週期S曲線發展趨勢的資料來源，進一步推估技術生命週期各階段發生的時間點。以成長曲線法中的羅吉斯成長模型，對薄膜太陽能技術發展進行趨勢的預測，並運用Loglet Lab 2 軟體分析薄膜太陽能產業的技術生命週期。 本研究之主要結論為薄膜太陽能技術於2001年是成熟期開始，2019年到達衰退期開始，目前2009年是屬於技術成熟期中期，專利數量領導國家為美國與日本，尤其是近年來日本專利發展非常迅速。建議即將投入廠商應該慎選薄膜太陽能電池種類，與國際上技術領導廠商技術授權與合作，以台灣的LCD產業價值鏈相當好的基礎以及國內既有LCD鍍膜技術及LCD設備業的製造優勢上來發展低成本、高可靠度的薄膜型太陽電池，則在2012年產業成熟期到來前，取得如半導體與平面顯示器等產業在國際上的地位。 Over the passed decade, Taiwan’s high technology industries such as semiconductor and TFT-LCD had accumulated many experience and fundamentals. Due to recent years, green energy and energy-saving industry are boosted; many enterprises devote in Photovoltaic, solar and LED manufacturing. Especially thin film solar production has similar process with TFT-LCD, thus related skilled person and capital are attracted. This study leverages “US Patent and Trademark Office” database to query related key index to develop “S curve” by using “Technology Life Cycle” theory in order to estimate the mature time of each stage of the life cycle. Especially thin film solar technology life cycle is estimated with “logistic growth model” and software “Loglet Lab 2” is utilized to analysis the life cycle of thin film photovoltaic industry. The major conclusions of this study are as follows. For thin film solar technology, the life cycle is in technical maturity stage in 2009. The leading country patent quantities are US and Japan. Due to the technical life cycle is in maturity stage, it is suggested that for the companies ready to get in should choose ready technology and technical align with foreign technical leading company. Based on the rich experience of Taiwan LCD industry, the lower cost and higher reliable thin film photovoltaic industries can be developed to achieve the leading position in international market before solar industry life come to maturity stage at 2012.
