| 摘要: | 金融控股法通過後，銀行間掀起一股合併的風潮，銀行合併可透過成本節省或收入增加達成合併銀行整體價值增加之目的。收入增加可透過金融服務的多樣化及金融商品跨售達成；成本節省可透過關閉分行或減少員工數目達成。 大多數的文獻討論金融機構合併之動機使用事後分析法，收集合併後存續銀行之財務資料，使用實證分析討論合併之成效及動機。較少文獻以合併之事前觀點討論銀行合併之預期價值增加率。因此，本文參考Schwartz and Moon’s (2000) 提出之連續時間模型，嘗試建立可供銀行合併價值計算之模型。 為了瞭解模型之可行性，本文使用台新銀行與大安銀行合併之個案進行討論。模擬結果台新銀行合併前之整體價值為NT$ 338,358,299（單位為千）；大安銀行為NT$315,542,557（單位為千）。 合併後之整體價值為NT$868,031,438（單位為千），價值增加率約為32.75%。 最後針對模型中之重要參數進行敏感度分析，發現合併銀行之成本節省來源中，變動成本節省相較於固定成本節省對銀行價值增加有較大之貢獻。 No one can deny that there is a trend in financial consolidation, including domestic and international banks, around the world for the prevalent perception of large organizations to be “too big to fall”. Bank mergers can increase value by reducing costs and/or increasing revenues. Revenue grows for diversification or cross-selling of bank service. Cost-down is from eliminating redundant facilities, staffs or even a department. However, most of the existing literatures examine the behavior of bank consolidation in the way of collecting financial data after banks consolidated and then try to figure out what the motives of the participating banks seeking for and what merger benefits for different stakeholders. On the important M&A topic, there is few paper to explore the merger gain in the ex ante viewpoint. That is, before the event of bank consolidation, what impact will be occurred for each independent bank or what benefit will be achieved for shareholders if the decision of M&A is made is analyzed in advance. This paper combines the concepts of real-option and capital budgeting to view the synergy of bank consolidation. We modify Schwartz and Moon’s (2000) model to price the transaction value of bank and calculate the merger-related gain as the value created from the merger activity. We implement the procedure to value the merger of two commercial banks in Taiwan- Taishin Bank and Dah An Bank. After estimating the model parameters by historical financial reports, and solving by simulation, the value of the Taishin Bank is NT$ 338,358,299 thousands and the Dah An Bank is NT$315,542,557 thousands. The consolidation value is NT$868,031,438 thousands, and the increased bank value ratio is 32.75%. We perform sensitivity analysis to figure out the important parameters that impact on the value of the consolidation bank. We find the cost saving in variable cost is more obvious than cost saving in fixed cost in bank value created. |
