本研究提出評價貸款保證的一般模型，探討存在多個保證人與多個被保證人下之保證價值與保證成本；利用蒙地卡羅模擬法探討保證人與被保證人資本結構之關鍵變數對保證成本、保證價值與保證人違約機率的影響，並且考慮在兩種不同選擇權架構下的結果，一種是保證期間到期時才檢視財務狀況(傳統選擇權架構)，另一種是設定界限於每一個月檢查保證人與被保證人的財務狀況(界限選擇權架構)，同時探討此兩種不同選擇權架構下，保證成本、保證價值與違約機率的相異點及原因。 This study proposes a general framework in which the value of loan guarantee and the cost of loan guarantee are analyzed under a multiple-guarantor and multiple-borrower framework. We carry out Monte Carlo simulation approach to investigate how the critical parameters of guarantors and borrowers affect the values of loan guarantees, the costs of loan guarantees providing by guarantors and the default probability in two cases. One is the frame of examining the financial state at the end of guarantee period (plain vanilla option structure), and the other is consideration of setting barrier to examine the financial state of guarantors and borrowers at each month (barrier option structure). Finally, we discuss the differences and reasons under two cases.
