| 摘要: | 本研究以台灣紡織業的七十二家上市、上櫃公司為研究對象，蒐集自TEJ的財務報表資料庫，研究期間為民國八十七年至九十一年，研究變數涵蓋TCRI 10個財務報表變數、治理機制、關係人交易及其他控制性變數。茲臚列本研究的實證結果如次： 1.台灣紡織業的正常與違約公司，在TCRI的10個財務比率中有7個之平均數與中位數存在顯著差異。此7個變數主要是指獲利能力、安全性及資產總額，並與經營績效呈正向關係；在上市與上櫃公司的比較方面，發現上市公司的營業規模與資產總額顯著大於上櫃公司，但平均收帳天數卻顯著短於上櫃公司；在紡織業的上中下游方面，上游公司的規模變數顯著大於中、下游公司，平均收帳天數卻比中、下游公司為短。示T 2.在其它變數的比較方面，正常公司之平均資本密集度與董監事持股比顯著高於違約公司。正常公司之平均營業利益之年變動率表現優於違約公司。至於用來衡量轉投資行為的長期投資效益率，則顯示正常公司的轉投資表現優於違約公司﹔違約公司在關係人交易所賒欠的應付帳款又比正常公司為高；在上市與上櫃公司的比較方面，上市公司之股東權益市值、長期投資佔淨值比、董監事質押比、關係人交易比重顯著高於上櫃公司，資本密集度及董監事持股比則比上櫃公司為低；在紡織業的上中下游方面，上游公司之股東權益市值、關係人應收帳款比顯著高於中游公司，上游公司之董監事質押比則比下游公司為高， 下游公司的長期投資佔淨值比、資本密集度又較上、中游公司為高。 3.當以TCRI 10個變數建立授信客戶的信用風險管理模型，實證發現卡方檢定值為39.41，P-Value值小於0.01，顯示評估模型相當合適。解釋變數是以速動比率及利息支出率在0.05顯著水準下具統計顯著性。此項實證也發現，納入治理機制等其他變數於經營績效模型無法提升預測能力。 4.無論是三年平均或違約事件發生當年、前一年及前兩年，均發現違約公司之違約機率顯著高於正常公司，且愈接近違約事件發生年度違約機率愈高。無論是三年平均或違約事件發生當年、前一年、前兩年，上市公司之違約機率均顯著高於上櫃公司，且愈接近違約事件發生年度違約機率愈高。上游、中游與下游公司在違約事件發生當年、前一年及前兩年，違約機率均無明顯差異。 5.利用Logit方法建立之經營績效模型，區分正常公司與違約公司的正確率高達92.4%，在事件發生前兩年也有73.6%的正確區別率。 This study is aimed to using Logit model, TTEST?NPARIWAY?ANOVA regression analysis & K-W Test to find key financial ratios from 10 of Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index and 12 of other selected financial ratios/values which are related to Corporate Governance, Long-term Investment & Inter-Companies transactions..etc. Which can distinguish operational performance between regular and default companies, Listed vs. OTC companies and performance among companies that located at headstream, middle steam and downstream of Taiwan Textile Industry. The samples of this study contain a total of 72 listed companies in textiles on the Taiwan Stock Exchange and OTC companies during the period from 1998 to 2002. All financial data were collected from the financial database of Taiwan Economic Journal. A brief summary of the major findings are given below: 1.7 out of 10 TCRI financial ratios can obviously distinguish the performance between regular and default companies. They are profitability, liquidity, interest coverage analysis related ratios and total assets of the companies; we found that the total revenue & total assets of Listed companies were greater than OTC companies. However, DSO of the Listed companies were shorter than OTC companies in average; the scale of companies that located at headstream were larger than the companies that located at middle stream & downstream of the Textile industry in Taiwan. 2.As for the other 12 selected financial ratios, we found that the fixed assets turnover and the percentage of shares of management board and supervisory board of the regular companies were higher than the default companies. The growth ratio of earning from operation of the regular companies was better than the default companies. Long-term investment performance of the regular companies was better than the default companies. And the percentage of accounts payable of inter-companies of default companies were higher than the percentage of regular companies; As for the market value of equity?Long-term investment vs. equity?the ratio of stock hypothecation of management board and supervisory board?the percentage of inter-companies transactions, the listed companies were higher than the default companies. The fixed assets turnover and the percentage of shares of management board and supervisory board of listed companies were lower than OTC companies; The market value of equity of the companies which located at headstream were larger than the value of the companies which located at middle stream and downstream respectively. Long-term investment vs. equity and fixed assets turnover of the companies, which located at downstream were higher than the companies at headstream and middle stream. 3.From the empirical test for logit model, the chi-square value was 39.41, P-value was lower than 0.01, which shown that the model is quite appropriate. The quick ratio and interest expense ratio are the key factors to distinguish the performance between regular companies and default companies. And the study also proved that the model will not increase the ability of prediction if we add Corporate Governance, long-term investment related factors. 4.The default ratio of the default companies was higher than the regular companies not only on the average of three years but also at the default occurred year, the previous one and two years before. And default ratio will be increased if the time is approaching to the default occurred year; Same as Listed companies, the default ratio of the listed companies was higher than the OTC companies not only at the average of three years but also at the default occurred year, the previous one and two years. And default ratio will be increased if the time is approaching to the default occurred year; There was no significant difference on the default ratio for the companies among headstream, middle stream and downstream of Textile industry in Taiwan. 5.From the empirical test for logit model, the mean correcting rate for regular and default companies was 92.4%, the mean correcting rate at two years before the occurred year was 73.6%. |
