摘要 本研究旨在剖析建築業財務報表，並據以建立財務危機模式以辨別財務風險高之公司，期能降低未來金融業對建築業之授信風險。過去雖有文獻探討如何透過財務模式建立公司財務危機預警系統，但均未有針對建築業產業特性而建立預警模式，因此，本研究即以建築業為樣本，根據其產業特性選出償債能力、經營能力、獲利能力、資本結構、成長能力等構面之財務比率，並採用logistic迴歸模式建構危機預警模型。本研究以台灣上市、上櫃及興櫃之建材營建產業為樣本公司，樣本期間為2000年至2005年。 其實證結果顯示，Logit模式預測正確率在財務危機前一年最高，在財務危機前兩年及前三年在預測正常公司仍有相當高的預測能力，在預測財務危機公司方面準確力則稍低，但整體預測率仍有70%以上。此外，本研究亦以個案銀行所承辦之兩個個案驗證其財務危機模式，其結果顯示模式具有區別力。因此，本研究所建立財務危機模式，可供銀行授信參考。 The Study of Analysis Architecture Industry Finance Reporting Abstract This purpose of this study is to analyze the financial statements and financial ratios for the architecture industry. Although the extant literature has discussed and established financial distress models, no studies focus on the model for the architecture industry. Thus, this study also build financial distress model for the architecture industry. We collect financial information on the listed companies in the architecture industry from the Taiwan Economic Journal. The sample period of this study covers from 2000 to 2005. This study chooses financial ratios related to liquidity, operating performance, return on investment, capital structure and solvency. We then use Logit model to construct the financial distress model for the architecture industry. The empirical results indicate that the correct ratio of one year before financial distress is higher than that for two or three year before financial distress. This study also uses two cases to verify the financial distress model. The results indicate that the financial distress model, made by financial ratios, could obtain excellent financial distress predicting. Therefore, the financial distress model is useful for the financial institutions to screen out the companies.
