近年來國際私募基金對台灣產業之收購或投資動作頻頻，相對亦使企業的籌資管道多了私募一途，其中銀行業因行業特殊性而具敏感意味，故本文以近期發生之凱雷入主大眾銀行此案為例，希望探討出其以每股17元參與大眾銀行現增之價格是否合理，以試圖了解其投資之背後意涵。本研究以大眾銀行與比較銀行自1997年7月至2007年6月底止十年間之股價及財務報表資料等為依據來進行分析。 本研究以多種公司評價模型為研究方式，例如資產價值評價法、現金流量折現法、相對評價法等概念，並做相關敏感性分析，經由實證研究分析結果顯示，帳面價值法、重置價值法與股利折現模型顯示凱雷此次投資大眾銀行之價格偏高，而自由現金流量折現模型、股東權益現金流量折現模型與市場價值法則證明大眾銀行的合理經濟價值確有其依據；再加上考量大眾銀行對國內南部地區中小企業客戶之耕耘、本益比偏低，同時也欲借重國際私募基金之多重資源等情況，凱雷用較高價格入主本土銀行以藉此參與未來兩岸三地之龐大發展商機，似是件具前瞻性之交易。 There are more and more cases of industry merger and acquisition from the international private equity fund in Taiwan in recent years. And it provides the domestic firms another way to raise funds. Due to the characteristic of the bank industry, we hereby discuss the reasonable value of Ta Chong Bank, whether the offering price of Carlyle Group for Ta Chong Bank is worth NT$ 17 per share. The analysis is based on the related stock prices and financial information from July 1997 to June 2007. In this case study, we discuss several firm pricing models, such as Asset appraisal approach, cash flow discount model, comparative pricing model, etc. Then we also use sensitivity analysis for this case. Through the case study, we find that Book Value Method, Replacement Value Method and Dividend Discount Model show the offering price of NT$ 17 per share exceeds the reasonable level of Ta Chong Bank’s price. However, the results support the decision of investment under Free Cash Flow to Firm Discount Model, Free Cash Flow to Equity Discount Model and Market Data Comparable Approach. In the future, Carlyle Group will share the success via Ta Chong Bank’s intimate relationship with their clients, especially for small and medium local firms with lower P/B ratio. Carlyle Group’s investment to Ta Chong Bank seems to be a farsighted decision. Carlyle Group can fully take the advantage for the investment of Ta Chong Bank to enter Taiwan, Hong Kong and Mainland China market for banking business.
