台灣的經濟奇蹟使輕重工業蓬勃發展，環境更因此受到負面的衝擊，空氣品質日益嚴重，許多文獻已證實空氣汙染物對於人體健康有不良的影響；而本文針對週歲內的嬰兒為研究對象，結合1995年至2003年空氣汙染數據及新生兒出生與死亡資料，分析空氣汙染物懸浮微粒、二氧化硫及二氧化氮對於週歲內的嬰兒是否造成死亡或呼吸道疾患死亡的發生；本研究利用不同的經濟計量模型分析此一關聯性問題，包括：(1)Tobit model之固定效果；(2)事件分析法－台灣2001年景氣衰退事件，採2000年至2002年之一階差分法；(3)六輕進駐雲林麥寮工業區，利用差異中的差異法進行估計。 實證結果顯示：(1)Tobit model下，懸浮微粒及二氧化氮與週歲內的嬰兒總死亡率呈現正向顯著的關係，表示懸浮微粒及二氧化氮濃度測值越高，週歲內的嬰兒總死亡率越高，而二氧化硫不具顯著性，父親和母親教育年數與週歲內的嬰兒總死亡率為負向顯著的關係，鄉鎮體重不足嬰兒比例與週歲內的嬰兒總死亡率為正向顯著之關係；但懸浮微粒、二氧化硫及二氧化氮對週歲內的嬰兒呼吸道疾患死亡率皆沒有顯著之影響；(2)景氣衰退事件法分析中，結果顯示懸浮微粒對週歲內的嬰兒總死亡率有一定程度之正向影響，且其與週歲內的嬰兒呼吸道疾患死亡率呈現正向顯著的關係，二氧化硫及二氧化氮則皆沒有達到統計上的顯著水準；(3)六輕進駐雲林議題採差中差法，實證結果顯示六輕自1999年於雲林麥寮工業區設立後，確實使雲嘉南地區週歲內的嬰兒呼吸道疾患死亡率增加，其中以二氧化氮對該區之嬰兒呼吸道疾患死亡率影響最甚。 The development of economy in Taiwan, which makes light and heavy industry flourish,however, has become a serious negative impact on environmental and air quality. Many of researches have confirmed that air pollution causes damages to human body but only a few studies shows the conjunction between air pollution and infant mortality. Therefore, the object of this study is to discuss infants in postneonatal period in Taiwan and to find the relationship between postneonatal infant mortality, particulate matter <10μm (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and it also estimates the effects of air pollution on risk of respiratory deaths in the postneonatal period. The analysis of sample is linking monitoring data for PM10, SO2 and NO2 together to infants born in Taiwan between 1995 and 2003, and is using different econometric models which include fixed effect of Tobit model,the analysis of event is the 2001 recession in Taiwan by first difference and construction of No.6 Naphtha Cracking Plant in Yunlin Mailiao in 1999 by difference in difference. After adjusting for demographic factors, empirical result shows that nitrogen dioxide and suspended particles are a risk factor for postneonatal infant mortality in tobit model. However, all of suspended particles, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide don’t associate with respiratory-related postneonatal infant mortality. The event analysis shows that PM10 has a certain degree of association with postneonatal infant mortality, which also has positive relationship with respiratory-related postneonatal infant mortality. Finally, analysis of No.6 Naphtha Cracking Plant shows that after this plant was established in Yunlin Mailiao industrial zones in 1999,respiratory-related postneonatal infant mortality within Yunlin- Chiayi area indeed increases and nitrogen dioxide is the most risk factor for postneonatal infant mortality.
