| 摘要: | 環境顧志耐曲線（EKC）係一討論環境品質與經濟成長兩者關係的曲線，假若其為倒U型，顯示隨著所得的提升，環境品質將呈先惡化後改善的型態。Roberts and Peter（1997)即指出，EKC型態隱含該國之政策意涵，若倒U型EKC成立，表示該國政策方向有助於環境品質改善。 由於過往EKC文獻從能源角度討論對環境壓力指標的影響相對較少，因此本研究試著運用國際能源總署（IEA）所發佈有關於台灣、日本、韓國的各項能源及二氧化碳排放資料，進行三個國家自1971至2005年之二氧化碳密集度與人均GDP的關連研究與比較，且配合一國之能源結構、產業結構、國際油價、能源生產力 、貿易效果進行實證分析，結果發現台灣與韓國之二氧化碳密集度與人均GDP呈一U型，轉折點分別為7,300美元與15,934美元（經PPP調整）。日本則為一遞減型態，顯示台灣與韓國的政策導向使環境品質惡化，而日本的政策施行則使二氧化碳密集度持續改善。 究其原因，從能源結構來看，台灣高碳能源占比較日、韓為高；由產業結構觀之，韓國發展主軸為高耗能的工業，台、日則著重於服務業的發展；再由發電結構配比可知，台灣偏重於燃煤發電，而日、韓則強調能源的多元化，除了煤的使用外，低碳的天然氣與無碳的核能占發電配比亦較台灣為高；此外，因台、韓工業之電力價格遠低於日本，說明較不易抑制該國工業部門的電力耗用量，進而使二氧化碳排放量較高；最後，由台灣與韓國偏重以出口為導向的貿易政策亦屬原因之一。 因此，本研究根據實證結果，並與日、韓在能源結構、產業結構、能源價格及發電結構配比之比較差異，對政府相關當局提出政策建議如下：1.效法日、韓發展多元化的能源供應策略，減低高碳能源的使用；2.移除相關補貼，使能源價格反應真實成本並予以調升，抑制各部門對能源的使用量；3.發電結構配比維持目前低碳之天然氣比重，提升無碳之核能做為替代發電燃料，以降低電力碳排放係數；4.產業結構之發展以服務業為主軸，降低高耗能工業之發展；5.對於運輸部門之運輸載具應致力於能源效率的提升。 The Environmental Kuznets Curve（EKC）describes a relationship between economic growth and environmental quality.In this paper, we apply energy and emission data that published by International Energy Agency（IEA）to analyse CO2 emission variation in Taiwan, Japan and Korea from 1971 to 2005. By using CO2 intensity for environmental pressure index, GDP per captia for economic growth index and other exogenous variables,for instance, energy structure, industry structure, crude oil price, energy productivity and trade effect to show the pattern of EKC in Taiwan, Japan and Korea. The econometric results lead to two conclusions. Firstly, the relationship between CO2 intensity and GDP per captia in Taiwan and Korea is U-shape. The turning point in Taiwan is 7,300 and in Korea is 15,934（US dollar by PPP）. Secondly, the EKC pattern in Japan is monotonically decreasing linear relationship. The reasons for U-shape EKC in Taiwan and Korea are as follows. First of all, both countries are export-oriented. Secondly, the power price in Taiwan and Korea is lower than that in Japan. Thirdly, the industry structure in Korea is industry-oriented and Taiwan too depends on coal using. Finally, the ratio of electricity output by natural gas and nuclear in Taiwan is lower than Japan and Korea. In short, we suggest some measures to improve relationship between CO2 intensity and GDP per captia. First, to develop diversity energy supply strategies. Second, by rising energy price in order to reduce energy use. Third, to enhance the ratio of electricity output by nuclear. Forth, to maintain the growth of service industry and lower the development of high energy intensity industry. Finally, to strengthen energy efficiency in transport sectors. |
