由於近年來國內汽油價格受到國際油價的衝擊持續的上漲，導致台灣國產汽車的銷售量嚴重萎縮，但是汽車銷售價卻沒有明顯的調漲。本論文旨在探討汽油價格與台灣國產車的需求是否具有關連性，在汽油價格上漲下，消費者是否傾向購買高燃油效率汽車以及廠商業者亦是否提高新車的燃油效率標準，推出高品質的省油車。於是本文藉由所蒐集1997~2008年的汽車銷售量、觀察到的特性及汽油價格資料，利用間斷選擇模型 ( discrete choice model )所發展出的市場佔有率模型以及存活機率模型估計油價對國產車需求的影響。 研究結果得出三大結論：第一是汽油價格上漲將造成國產車的銷售下降，但相對的刺激高燃油效率車的銷售增加；而汽車銷售市佔率對每公里的燃油消費的需求彈性為-7.05，隱含具有高的敏感度。第二是國瑞、台灣本田、裕隆、中華、馬自達、三陽、福特六和、小型及中低價位汽車在面對高油價下，其銷售量有提高的趨勢，對汽油價格較具有高度敏感性。第三是省油車在市場上的存活時間比耗油車的存活時間久。 In recent years, domestic gasoline prices by the impact of international oil prices continue to rise, leading to Taiwan's domestic automobile sales seriously decline. But the prices of cars are no obvious increase in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relation of gasoline prices and the demand of Taiwan's automobiles. We consider whether consumers prefer to buy high fuel efficient cars and firms also increase automobile fuel efficiency standards under the high gasoline prices. This study uses the market share model which the discrete choice model developed as well as the survival probability model to estimate the impact of gasoline prices on the demand of domestic cars. Our data consists of 584 car models including sales, related characteristics and gasoline prices from 1997 to 2008. Our empirical results show three major conclusions: First, gasoline prices will cause domestic car sales fell, but the sales of high fuel efficient cars will relatively increase. In addition, the elasticity of automobile market shares with fuel consumption is -7.05. The second is that the sales of Kuozui, Taiwan Honda, Yulon, China Motor Corporation, MAZDA, Sayang, Ford, small car and low-price cars have increased under high gasoline prices. The third is that high fuel efficient vehicles survive longer than low fuel efficient vehicles in the market.
