| 摘要: | 經過多年努力，台灣終於成為世界貿易組織（WTO）的一員，由於進入WTO對農業及汽車業影響甚鉅，過去十年，國內主要汽車廠在產品研發、裝配品質及經銷商通路方面，做了許多強化工作。今日國產車品質、配備水準已與進口車並駕齊驅，某些車型台灣甚至是原產國以外第一個上市的國家。當國內主要國產車業者已作好迎戰WTO的準備時，面對的卻是一個銷售衰退、產能過剩、競爭激烈的市場。以民國九十年銷售量347,433輛而言，較民國八十三年577,000輛衰退了40%。 國內過去有關汽車銷售預測研究，多半完成於經濟蓬勃、汽車業高成長的階段。本研究在探討面對現階段產業快速外移、經濟成長趨緩、失業率高升、及WTO開放市場競爭等政經大環境衝擊，對汽車銷售的影響。藉由這些變數與汽車銷售間的相關、迴歸分析，建立一適當模型以預測未來台灣地區汽車銷售之趨勢。 本研究經過多次模擬及參考業者實務作法，由11個產經變數中（經濟成長率、平均國民所得、民間消費成長率、人口統計因素、失業率及失業人口、企業外移/資金外流、股票指數、房屋建築業景氣、金融業逾放比率、大眾捷運系統通車之影響、公路里程數與車輛密度），挑選其中6個與汽車銷售相關性高的變數作迴歸分析，再經由迴歸統計及變異數分析，將其中P值高的變數予以刪除，最後只留下「民間消費成長率」及「失業率」二個自變數建立迴歸預測模型。 依據業者訪談及本研究模型預測，台灣汽車市場未來幾年內將維持在30~40萬輛的水準，市場年銷售量回到50萬輛的機會微乎其微。影響台灣汽車銷售的主要經濟變數如：民間消費成長率、失業率、對外投資/資金外流、不動產景氣及銀行逾放率等，其實都與產業結構改變及政府政策有關，並非短期景氣復甦所能解決。 本論文最後依研究結論及研究者多年汽車業工作經驗提出對汽車業者及政府汽車政策建議如下： 1.市場飽和，產能過剩，小廠、小代理商宜尋求退路。 2.各車廠、代理商宜利用客戶關係管理及資料庫行銷以鞏固客戶忠誠度。 3.政府應獎勵、強制老舊汽車換新，增加新車銷售。 4.政府可考慮取消或調降汽車貨物稅以刺激買氣。 5.車廠應簡化產品線，追求大陸市場機會。 Executive Master of Business Administration, School of Management, National Central University Researcher: Dennis Leu Advisor: Dr. Hsiao-Mei Li Topic: Study of Taiwan’s Automotive Sales Forecast While Taiwan’s GDP and foreign trades continue to grow, the island’s new vehicle sales, however, have been declining starting in 1995. In 2001, total new vehicle sales were 347,400 units, down 40% vs. historical high of 577,000 in 1994. There was variety of studies on Taiwan’s vehicle sales forecast conducted by academic institutions or automakers in the past; most of these studies were completed before mid-90’s when vehicle sales were booming. Facing the reality of low economic growth, high unemployment rate, rapid capital outflow to China, and competition under WTO open market protocol, it is worthwhile to re-establish a forecast model for Taiwan’s new vehicle sales that accommodates present macro-economic conditions. This study has three objectives: 1). Track Taiwan’s automotive industry since inception; review industry and segment sales performance in recent years, 2). Analyze regression between select economic indicators and vehicle sales; identify factors that have strong correlation with vehicle sales for developing multi-regression forecast model, and 3). Explore issues and summarize suggestions/ recommendations for Government and automakers/sellers. Through step-wise regression and inputs from interviews with major carmakers/distributors, this study chooses “Unemployment Rate” and “Growth Rate of Private Consumption” as independent factors for multi-regression forecast model. Both “Coefficient of Determination” (R2) and P Value are within acceptance level, proving adequacy of the model. According to the regression model, annual sales of Taiwan vehicle industry will range from 300,000 to 350,000 units for the next few years. Possibility of reinstating Taiwan’s new vehicle sales at 500,000 units per annum will be limited prior to restructure of employment environment as well as boost of consumer confidence. This study wraps up with suggestions to carmakers and government agency for lobbying/promulgating tax subsidies/regulations that stimulate new vehicle demand, such as acceleration of aging car replacement, reduction/exempt of automobile commodity tax, auto policy/free trade area (FTA) between Taiwan and China. |
