Recipe for predicting the IMF B-z polarity's change of direction following solar disturbances and at the onset of geomagnetic storms

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Title:	Recipe for predicting the IMF B-z polarity's change of direction following solar disturbances and at the onset of geomagnetic storms
Authors:	Wu,CC;Dryer,M;Smith,Z;Wu,ST;Lyu,LH
Contributors:	太空科學研究所
Keywords:	INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC-FIELD;MAGNETOSPHERE;WIND
Date:	1996
Issue Date:	2010-06-29 18:39:51 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	中央大學
Abstract:	A three-dimensional, time-dependent, MHD model of solar-disturbance-caused storms (Wu, 1993; Wu et al., 1996a) is used to predict the turning direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at Earth. More explicitly, we examine the polarity of B-z caused by solar disturbances on the Sun. Three manifestations of solar disturbances, as studied by previous workers, are examined. Firstly, twenty-nine kilometric Type II events, associated (Cane, 1985) with geomagnetic storms, are studied within the context of our three-dimensional model. Then, an additional. eleven long-duration X-ray events (LDEs) with radio fluxes greater than 100 solar flux units were examined; these events were not associated with interplanetary Type II events but were also associated (Cane, 1985) with geomagnetic storms. Finally, in situ interplanetary phenomena that caused ten large (Dst < -100 nT, the intensification of the storm) geomagnetic storm episodes (Tsurutani et al., 1988) near solar maximum are also studied via the B-z predictions of our 3D MHD model. The accuracy of these B-z turning-direction-predictions is found to be as follows: (1) for the kilometric Type II events, the model's prediction was successful for 26 of the 29 events studied; (2) 10/11 for the LDE events; and (3) 7/9 for the major geomagnetic storm events. The overall prediction accuracy of these three independent data sets is 43/49. Thus, consideration of these three independent data sets strongly suggests that the recipe proposed by the basic 3D MHD model may be valid for a zero-th order prediction scheme. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd
Relation:	JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC AND TERRESTRIAL PHYSICS
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Space Science] journal & Dissertation

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