為了協助決策者對於永續發展管理之需求，許多研究單位與組織因其本身的需要發展了多種評量永續發展的方法，分析國家或區域發展極限的相關資訊，做為資源管理者之決策參考。本研究之目的為發展一套能夠整合自然生態環境各組成間複雜交互關係的河川流域水土資源永續發展評量系統。為此，本研究根據承載力之理論基礎，模擬河川流域環境資源與追人類活動之交互作用機制，探討河川流域系統之永續力(sustainability)與承載力的意義，並據此發展河川流域水土資源永續發展之評量系統，分析河川流域發展極限與環境資源利用狀態等永續發展相關資訊，作為資源管理者之決策支援系統。本研究有別於鍾氏(1996)、黃氏(1998)與連氏(1999)所發展之河川流域承載容量評量系統，文中除了重新探討河川流域「永續力(sustainability)」與「承載力(carrying capacity)」之界定，更應用系統動力學之發展軟體「VENSIM」建立河川流域水土資源承載力評量系統，並克服了VENSIM模擬河川流域系統之空間連續性與穩態系統特性的難題，發展出有助於整合社會、經濟與環境面之永續發展評量模式。 The information of whether the country or section is approaching to sustainable development is important for resources managers. Much research has been devoted to the sustainable development evaluation methods in recent years. However, few studies have been reported on the integration of various sustainable development issues. The objective of this research was to develop the river basin water and land resources sustainable development evaluation model by system thinking, which could integrate environment, society and economic issues into the evaluation model. This study based on the theory of “carrying capacity” to simulate the interactions between environment resources and human activities in the river basin and discuss the meaning of “sustainability” and “carrying capacity”. According to the procedure, this study develops the river basin water and land resources sustainable development evaluation system to analysis the related information about sustainable development such as the limitation of the development for river basin and the state of environment resources etc. Thus, the evaluation system developed in this study was a decision support system (DSS) for resource managers. This study distinguishes from the river basin carrying capacity evaluation system developed by Zhong (1996), Huang (1998) and Lian (1999). This study redefined the meaning of “sustainability” and “carrying capacity” and applied the system dynamic software called “VENSIM” to build the river basin water and land resources carrying capacity evaluation system. This study overcome the difficulties of the space continuity and the characteristic of steady state in the river basin when apply “VENSIM” to simulate the river basin system. Finally, this study developed the sustainable development evaluation system that can help to integrate the aspects of society, economic and environment.
