本研究基於用路人之均衡原則，建構包括旅次產生、旅次分佈、運具選擇與交通量指派在內之多運具的四階段整合性模型，以克服傳統旅運預測之四階段界面不一致性的問題。經由改良後之超級路網的詮釋，該整合模型可視為一個交通量指派之延伸問題。本研究另設計小規模路網，以Frank-Wolfe演算法分別針對線性與非線性路段成本函數加以求解驗證，並歸納出需求函數之係數的限制，文末亦比較整合模型與反饋式循序性模型之優劣點，並做出結論與建議。 Based on Wardrop first principle, this research formulates a combined model that covers four steps, i.e., trip generation, trip distribution, modal split, traffic assignment, embedded in the travel demand forecasting procedure. Using the modified supernetwork representation, the proposed combined model can be naturally regarded as an extension of the fixed demand traffic assignment model. A hypothesized small network was demonstrated using the Frank-Wolfe algorithm for both linear and nonlinear link cost functions. The experiment also shows a certain restriction must be imposed on the parameters of origin-destination demand functions. A comparison of our combined model and the sequential travel demand forecasting with feedback was also made. A few remarks are given in the end.
