雲端運算是2010年全世界最熱門的名詞，不論是資訊產業、業界公司組織乃至於公部門都躍躍欲試，但網路泡沫化的前車之鑑不遠，在雲端運算一片熱的背後，對雲端運算的前景仍眾說紛紜。 在網路已經日益成熟的環境下，雲端運算創造的價值不僅是企業服務型態的改變，更是一種新生活概念的形成，企業如何找到正確的方式來滿足客戶的需求，是一項嚴峻但又刻不容緩的課題。 本研究應用德菲法，透過有系統的連續調查，目的在於了解雲端運算的營運現況，尋找具發展潛力的營運方式，以及從脈絡中預測雲端運算的未來趨勢與影響，期望能提供我國政府與資訊產業在未來發展雲端策略的方向。 透過德菲法的分析驗證，本研究獲得的發現與結果如下： 1. 「基礎建設完整」、「安全性」與「穩定性」是雲端營運模式發展的重要指標。 2. 最具備發展潛力的雲端營運模式是雲端服務的形式。 3. 隨著雲端的發展，未來大眾會更依賴網路。雲端運算將以提供中小企業與消費者雲端服務為主。 Cloud computing might be one of the most popular terms around the whole world in 2010. Not only the information industry and public sector, but public sector would like to try the benefit of it. However the dot-com bubble burst lesson was not far away from us, the prospect of cloud computing remains to be controversial. In pace with the network infrastructure has become more and more mature, the value created by cloud computing is not just the type of business services, more broadly, a new life concept was gradually formated. It's a serious but also a pressing issue for corporations to find the right way to meet customer needs. In this study, the application of Delphi method help us to know the operational status of cloud computing nowadays, finding a potential operation mode through a systemic and continuous surveys, and the future trend and impact of cloud computing. Hoping to provide our government and information industry with the direction of cloud computing in the future strategic. Through the analysis of the Delphi method, the findings and results obtained from this study are as follows: 1. "Infrastructure integrity," "security" and "stability" are key developing indicators of cloud computing operating modes. 2. The most developing potential mode of cloud computing operating is the cloud services. 3. With the development of the cloud computing, public will be much more dependent on the network. And cloud computing will mainly offer cloud services, which is service for SMEs and consumer.
