| 摘要: | 在快速流通消費產品市場裡，由於競爭的激烈與產品的多元，企業對於整個產品市場銷售需求的掌握，是一個相當重要的工作。然而隨著台灣地區近年來賣場通路，店頭市場的消長變化，擁有自我品牌的傳統食品製造公司，當面對的不再是只要將產品生產出來就有消費者購買，甚至需要根據消費者需求客製化生產，消費者至上的供需市場時，尤其近年來食品業在各種食品風暴的衝擊下，又須顧及保存期限的食品鮮度限制，如何做好預測管理正是食品業的一大考驗。本研究在探討傳統食品公司在面臨企業從生產導向轉型成為消費導向，以及現階段休閒食品市場需求之競爭變化，建立出合理的銷售需求預測模式，以解決企業在掌握產品市場需求時所遭遇的困難。本研究首先針對快速流通消費產品特性，及休閒食品產業市場進行分析，說明傳統食品公司在面對市場銷售需求預測所面對各種不確定性之問題，依據廠商經驗找出影響市場需求的自變數，將季節性因素中拆分為農曆春節與中元節，所對應銷售月份變化之所佔單月的農曆天數，以及促銷因素之廣告效果變數、賣場陳列效果變數以及通路折價效果變數，並藉由廠商聯華食品選定出一特定適合產品之歷年實際銷售資料，並將廠商實際可控投入自變數資料，探討這些變數與產品銷售間的關係，經由迴歸分析研究方法，找出影響關聯性，藉以建立一個適當的模型以預測未來市場的銷售需求，並期望能有效用地推展至其他產品。Due to the intensity of competition and diversity of products, it is a very important work to entirely master the product market demand, especially in this fast moving consumer goods market. However, with the growth and decline in Taiwan in recent years stores channel, traditional food manufacturing companies that have their own brand names, not only need to produce the product to sell but also need to produce the products according to consumer demand and make it customization in this consumer oriented world. In recent years, due to several turmoil of a variety of foods, how to make the forecast management about the shelf life of fresh food restrictions is a major test of the food industry. This study investigated the traditional food companies which is facing the corporate transition from production-oriented to consumer-oriented, and current snack food market demand and it’s competition changes, than establish a reasonable sales demand forecasting model in order to solve the difficulty that company will face by the time they try to fully master the market demand of the traditional food market.In this study, characteristics of the fast moving consumer products, and snack foods industry market analysis, indicating the traditional food company faced the problem of uncertainties in the face of market demand forecast, according to the manufacturer experience to identify the independent variables affecting the market demand seasonal factors in the split for the Lunar New Year and the Hungry Ghost Festival, the corresponding changes in the share of a single month sales month Lunar days, as well as promotion factors of advertising effect variables, the stores display the effect of variables and channel discount the effect of variables, and by selected Lian Hwa Foods Corporation for products of a specific calendar year, the actual sales data, and manufacturers actually controllable input the information of the independent variables, to explore the relationship between these variables and product sales, through regression analysis method to identify the impact correlation in order to establish an appropriate model to predict future sales demand and expect effective land extended to other products. |
