根據農糧署資料顯示，我國綜合糧食自給率已逐年下降至32%，此數值也與鄰近飲食習慣相近的日、韓等國比較為低，將對於糧食安全造成威脅。受到氣候變遷的影響，大規模天然災害頻傳，全球糧食供需鏈風險逐漸提升，氣候變遷使得各地水文氣候也都產生了變異，現在的降雨紀錄可看出短時間內降雨集中的趨勢，長時間的乾旱與短時間內的大量降雨都是即將面臨的問題。在台灣灌區內同時有蔬菜田與水稻田，也有單純大面積種植蔬菜之蔬菜專業區，目前混作的情況並不少見。為了解灌溉因子對於作物的影響，本研究利用系統動力模式建立區域灌排系統，導入輪灌系統模擬實際灌溉操作模式，在目前研究區域內的灌溉水源供需情況下，探討不同作物面積分布其灌溉操作方式，對於農業生產影響及水源調配之可行性，以供農田及水利相關單位於耕作或乾旱發生期間，作為增加農業灌溉在糧食安全問題時，面對氣候變遷可靠度、新興水源之用水調配，面對有關應變處理時之資料支援、農耕對策能進行更準確之評估。利用系統動力模式建立區域灌排系統，導入輪灌系統模擬實際灌溉操作模式，在目前研究區域內的灌溉水源供需情況下，探討不同作物面積分布其灌溉操作方式，對於農業生產影響及水源調配之可行性，以供農田及水利相關單位於耕作或乾旱發生期間，作為新興水源之用水調配之參考。 ;According to the report of Agriculture and Food Agency, the comprehensive food self-sufficiency rate has decreased to 32% year by year with high risk of food security. This value is also lower than our neighbor countries, such as Japan or Korea, which had similar eating preference. The effect of climate change made mass hazards in the whole world. The hydrology record data also showed the pattern of long term drought and short time mass rainfall. That also increased the risk of worldwide food supply chain. In Taiwan, paddy rice is always the most important crop. However, the same paddy irrigation area has mix crop in the same time, such as paddy and upland crop, or pure large area vegetable field is not rare. To understand the irrigation factors effect of food security. This research will establish the study area irrigation system with Vensim model and simulate with real rotation irrigation operation system. To discuss the crop output effect and water allocation under local seasonal irrigation supply condition and mix crop area distribution. The result data can provide the policy office as background data or pre-study to make more accurate decisions about the subject of drought season, food security of agriculture irrigation, reliability of climate change or renew water allocation policy. ; 研究期間 10105 ~ 10112
