Three essays on regional microeconometric analyses

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Title:	Three essays on regional microeconometric analyses
Authors:	鄭美君;Cheng,Meu-chun
Contributors:	經濟學系
Keywords:	都市規模分配;Zipf’s法則;外人投資;中國;異質因果;可再生能源;City size distribution;Zipf’s Law;FDI;politics;Heterogeneous panel;Renewable energy
Date:	2013-07-16
Issue Date:	2013-08-22 12:09:05 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本論文透過應用個體計量方法來探討全球一些重要的議題，本論文包含三個子議題。第一個議題主要探討中國的都市規模分配。中國自1978年實施經濟改革後，經濟便開始快速成長，然而經濟改革不只為中國經濟帶來快速的發展，亦帶來了都市化現象。由於經濟改革造成快速的都市化，因此中國都市規模分配之演進值得我們深入探討。本論文第一個子議題，將透過中國1984年至2008年的都市人口探討中國都市規模分配的變化以及影響其都市規模分配的因素為何。研究結果顯示中國都市的規模分配較Zipf法則下更為平均，且大都市的都市規模分配較小都市的都市規模分配更為平均，而造成此現象的主要因素為政府支出及產業結構的改變。此外，隨著經濟的發展及較低的運輸成本則促使人口較集中。　　第二個子議題則探討中國對外直接投資的決定因素。首先，針對中國過去十年對外直接投資的結構進行分析，觀察其是否存在一些特殊的型態。實證分析上除考慮折衷理論，本議題提出技術尋求假說、天然資源尋求假說以及政治連結假說，以檢驗中國對外直接投資的特殊動機。研究發現，技術尋求以及天然資源尋求皆為驅使中國行對外直接投資的動力。此外，政治連結亦為其進行對外投資的重要動機之一，其中又以開發中的地主國較為顯著。亦即，中國傾向投資在政治風險較高的開發中國家。在尋求技術以及天然資源時又傾向較高政治風險的開發中國家。　　第三個議題則透過1980年至2010年共70個國家探討可再生能源與GDP之間的關係以及可再生能源如何影響GDP。實證結果發現可再生能源的增加可刺激GDP的增長，並進一步研究發現可再生能源的增加將促使資本形成的增加以及能源進口的減少，進而促使GDP的增加。在異質因果檢定發現，在發展中國家以及已開發國家其可再生能源與GDP、可再生能源和資本形成存在雙向的因果關係，然而可再生能源與能源進口僅在已開發國家則存在單向因果，在開發中國家則不存在因果關係。 The purpose of this dissertation is applying microeconometric techniques to further investigate some important topics in the world. This dissertation is composed of three self-contained empirical essays. The first question that arises concerns the size distribution of Chinese cities. Since China’s experience with high economic growth has undergone dramatic change following the reforms initiated in 1978, which not only introduced economic incentives, but also encouraged urbanization. Thus, the central purpose of first chapter is to investigate the trend of the size distribution of cities and the factors that may contribute to the change in the size distribution of cities in China. Thus the empirical data are obtained from the 1984-2008 period to examine the size distribution of China’s cities. The results indicate that the size distribution of Chinese cities is more equal than would be predicted by Zipf’s Law. According to our results, the possible explanations for the more even distribution of large cities relative to the smaller ones is related to China’s government expenditures and industrial structure. Finally, we find that economic growth promotes population concentration and that lower transportation costs will promote population concentration. The second research question investigated the determinants of China’s outward direct investment (ODI). We first analyze the structure and dynamics of China’s ODI over the past decade, highlighting its specific types. Based on the analysis, this study then proposes three testable hypotheses including technology sourcing, resource seeking, and political linkage. Various estimates show that technology sourcing is supported moderately, whereas resource seeking serves one of primary driving forces. Crucially, the motive of political linkage is significantly related to ODI and it is particularly relevant to developing destinations. This finding indicates that China tends to invest in developing countries with high political risk, which is in contrast with the prediction of the FDI theory. Furthermore, a developing country with high political risk seems to be the favored destination for China’s ODI to acquire technologies and resources. The final research question focused on examining relationship between renewable energy and GDP and how renewable energy impacts GDP. The empirical data are obtained from for 70 countries from 1980 to 2010. The result shows that an increase in renewable energy would stimulate to increase GDP. We further to investigate the mechanism of how the renewable energy impacts GDP, according to our results we notice that an increase in renewable energy would lead to increase capital formation and decrease imports of energy therefore lead to the increase of GDP. The results of causality test revealed that the bidirectional relationship between GDP to renewable energy in developed and developing countries. The results of causality test show bidirectional causality between renewable energy and capital formation both in developed and developing countries. Nevertheless, the result indicates unidirectional causality between imports of energy to renewable energy in developed countries, and no causality between imports of energy to renewable energy in developing countries.
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