整合不同預報路徑在I-TRaP颱風降雨潛勢預報之研究

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題名:	整合不同預報路徑在I-TRaP颱風降雨潛勢預報之研究
作者:	柯雅馨;Ke,Ya-hsin
貢獻者:	大氣物理研究所
關鍵詞:	颱風降雨潛勢;I-TRaP;系集降雨預報;Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP);I-TRaP;Ensemble Rainfall Forecast
日期:	2013-08-27
上傳時間:	2013-10-08 09:30:20 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	考慮台灣地形與颱風旋轉效應的改良式熱帶降雨潛勢(Improved Tropical Rainfall Potential, I-TRaP)技術，雖然已能有效提升颱風降雨潛勢預報之準確度，但實際應用上還是會因颱風預報路徑的不準確而產生誤差。因此，應用I-TRaP時，如何降低因預報路徑所造成之降雨預報誤差，實為重要課題。本研究之目的即在於降低因預報路徑不準確導致I-TRaP於實際颱風累積降雨預報所產生的誤差，其研究步驟是先使用中央氣象局 (Central Weather Bureau, CWB) 、美國海軍聯合颱風警報中心 (Joint Typhoon Warning Center, JTWC) 、日本氣象廳 (Japan Meteorological Agency, JMA) 、韓國氣象廳 (Korea Meteorological Administration, KMA) 、香港天文台 (Hong Kong Observatory, HKO) 及中國國家氣象中心 (National Meteorological Center, NMC) 等各國氣象預報單位於2009 ~ 2011年發佈之颱風預報路徑，以I-TRaP分別估算颱風的累積降雨潛勢，再與地面測站實際降雨驗證以分析不同預報路徑所估算累積降雨與誤差，並根據不同預報路徑所估算得之降雨誤差大小分配權重係數，誤差較小者，配以較高權重，反之則配以較低權重，亦即系集的颱風降雨潛勢。最後，本研究利用所建立之權重建立I-TRaP降雨的系集，重新估算24小時累積降雨，再將2012年侵台颱風作為獨立個案，以探討I-TRaP技術於實際預報時之實用性。結果顯示，當預報路徑有較大誤差時，I-TRaP的颱風降雨潛勢誤差也會明顯上升，而經由整合不同預報路徑於I-TRaP颱風降雨潛勢，確實能有效改善I-TRaP使用單一路徑估算降雨潛勢之精度。 An improved tropical rainfall potential (I-TRaP) approach has been proposed recently by considering a typhoon’s rainband rotation and the terrain effects for estimating more accurate potentials than the original TRaP technique did. For the I-TRaP technique, the typhoon track prediction is one of the key factors. An ensemble typhoon rainfall model, thus for constructing a more robust I-TRaP with forecasted tracks from different weather agencies, is proposed in this study. The predicted tracks for typhoons over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean during 2009-2011 by several weather centers, including the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan, Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTCW) of U.S.A., Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), and National Meteorological Center (NMC) of China, were applied to the I-TRaP technique for the typhoon rainfall potential. By comparing with the ground-based rainfall measurements, the weighting for each typhoon rainfall prediction has been determined for the ensemble typhoon rainfall model, and to constructed a more accurate I-TRaP. Meanwhile, to investigate the I-TRaP practicality, several typhoon cases in 2012 were used to test the new I-TRaP model. The result shows that the rainfall ensemble algorithm can make the I-TRaP more stable and accurate in typhoon rainfall potential estimations.
顯示於類別:	[大氣物理研究所 ] 博碩士論文

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