本文的研究目的是想探究陸客來臺後我國觀光旅館原有客源的影響。自2008年中開放陸客後，觀光旅館原以日籍為大宗的外籍住客，被陸客所取代。有些縣市甚至陸客人數超越台籍而成為該區觀光旅館最大客源。因此本文欲以實證方法證實陸客是否對台籍和外籍住客造成排擠效果。 本文所使用的實證方法是以OLS迴歸求得difference-in-difference模型中的係數並觀察其值是否為負且顯著。另外又以PANEL DATA的模型從另一角度加以佐證。 實證結果出爐，以OLS迴歸發現陸客造成台籍住客比例上的消退，而外籍住客人數的減少 以PANEL DATA模型發現陸客的比例和絕對人數的增加皆對台籍和外籍住客的比例和絕對人數造成負面且顯著的影響。因此可以推論開放陸客來台對我國觀光旅館的原有客源確實造成負面的衝擊。 然而擴建的房間數、爆增的旅遊人次都能提升台籍外籍住客的絕對人數，因此陸客所造成供給面的進步及旅遊熱度的增溫實對台灣觀光產業都有正面的助益。 本研究最後對未來研究方向提出可納入一般旅館、民宿為觀察對象 外資一條鞭式的投資策略及大陸實行「旅遊法」對觀光旅館的影響，期許將來研究能更貼近時事。 The goal of my thesis is to study the impact of mainland China tourists on hotel’s customers. Since we opened tourism market to China tourists in 2008, the majority of foreign clients of hotel were replaced by China instead of Japanese. In some cities, China tourists even became the majority other than Taiwanese. In my empirical result, OLS regression (difference-in-differences estimator) shows China tourists causes the decrease in the proportion of Taiwanese customers and the reduction in the amount of foreign customers. Panel data reveals that China tourists amount and proportion has negative effect on both amount and proportion of Taiwanese and foreign clients. However, the investment of hotel and explosive tourists’ quantity can affect tourism market positively. Finally, I suggest we could include other type of hotel in the study in the future and how will outside capital and China law affect this thesis is worthy for further research.
