本文分析全球各類型區域貿易協定（RTAs）對外人直接投資淨流入（FDI）的影響，並以歐盟（EU）擴張為例，採用縱橫資料固定效果模型，發現簽署區域貿易協定/加入歐盟擴張對於簽署國/歐盟國家的外人直接投資淨流入有其助益；而且各簽署國/歐盟國家與他國簽署的雙邊協定，對於簽署國/歐盟國家的外人直接投資淨流入之效果大於加入多邊區域經貿組織/歐盟擴張的效果。此外，總要素生產力成長率及全球外人直接投資淨流入，對於簽署國/歐盟國家的外人直接投資淨流入有正向且顯著效果。 若以此模型初估台灣加入海峽兩岸經濟合作架構協議（ECFA）及其後續協議對於台灣外人直接投資的效果，亦得出ECFA及其後續協議對於台灣外人直接投資有正面效益。因此，檢視台灣面對亞太區域經濟整合的策略，採用優先選擇與跨太平洋夥伴協議及區域全面經濟夥伴協議會員國洽簽雙邊自由貿易協定方式，以促進台灣外人直接投資流入，或可為一可行之策略。 This paper investigates the effects of RTAs/EU enlargement on net FDI inflows of member countries using a panel data fixed effects model. We found that members are associated with a positive change in FDI net inflows. Comparing with multilateral and bilateral RTAs in the world or in EU enlargement case, we found that signing bilateral FTA get more FDI inflow to member countries. In addition to market size, GDP growth rate, and the openness, FDI inflow increases with the growth rate of TFP and global FDI net inflows. We also apply this model to preliminary estimate the effects of ECFA on Taiwan net FDI inflows, and obtain the same conclusion that Taiwan is associated with a positive change in FDI net inflow by signing ECFA with mainland China. The conclusion implies that, facing Asian Pacific regional economic integration, Taiwan may attract more FDI inflows by signing bilateral FTAs with TPP and RCEP Members before entering TPP and RCEP.
