具相關性之多變量隨機變數模擬技術於考量流域降雨相關性之洪災風險評估模型推測降雨事件庫建置應用之研究;The Application of Stochastic Simulation Techniques of Multivariate with Correlation to Generate Stochastic Rainfall Events for Flood Risk Assessment in Taiwan

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题名:	具相關性之多變量隨機變數模擬技術於考量流域降雨相關性之洪災風險評估模型推測降雨事件庫建置應用之研究;The Application of Stochastic Simulation Techniques of Multivariate with Correlation to Generate Stochastic Rainfall Events for Flood Risk Assessment in Taiwan
作者:	許文科
贡献者:	國立中央大學災害防治研究中心
关键词:	防災工程
日期:	2012-12-01
上传时间:	2014-03-17 11:53:55 (UTC+8)
出版者:	行政院國家科學委員會
摘要:	研究期間：10108~10207;Typhoons frequently cause casualties, property and economic losses in Taiwan. Some flood risk models have been developed to assess the losses for Taiwan’s property insurance industry. However, potentially extreme rainfalls would be ignored and assessments of property losses might be underestimated if only about 240 typhoon events recorded in Taiwan during 1960–2010 are considered in the flood risk models. This work generated a sufficient number of stochastic rainfall events, including potentially extreme rainfall events using a truncated lognormal distribution and a correlation matrix. Generated events will basically retain historical rainfall characteristics such as mean, standard deviation and spatial distribution. A practical case study is carried out that includes different generated rainfall events. Comparisons of event cases and their application for flood risk assessment for an insurance portfolio are made. The generated cases, which have extreme rainfall, produce higher losses than the loss from the historical case. This outcome will be a practical supplement to flood-risk assessments by considering the influence of potentially extreme future rainfall events.
關聯:	財團法人國家實驗研究院科技政策研究與資訊中心
显示于类别:	[災害防治研究中心] 研究計畫

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