本研究利用專利分析與技術生命週期觀點來預測全球二氧化鈦的技術發展趨勢，二氧化鈦消耗總量係一個國家消費水準的重要參考指標，因為二氧化鈦應用領域非常廣泛 ，因此其技術生命週期甚具研究價值。 本研究之進行是使用國際專利分類號做為專利檢索條件，並與專家進行訪談後以“titanium dioxide”為關鍵字，作為專利資料庫的搜尋依據。研究以“titanium dioxide”之專利累積數量衡量技術績效，並利用羅吉斯成長模型描繪“titanium dioxide”技術生命週期。 研究結果發現二氧化鈦技術生命週期可分為下列四個週期階段: 第一週期階段為技術萌芽期，時間由1976年至1990年；第二週期階段為技術成長期，時間由1990年至2005年；第三週期階段為技術成熟期，時間由2005年至2044年；第四週期階段為技術衰退期，時間由2044年開始。研究結果亦發現分析產業技術發展趨勢時，若考慮技術領導廠商將更可提升預測之正確性。 本研究完成於2006年，二氧化鈦技術發展正處於技術成熟期的剛開始階段，故本研究針對技術成熟期技術發展策略提出建議如下： 一、因應二氧化鈦技術成熟期，相對應市場產品需求即將進入高度成長，廠商應該在此時考量增加投資，以利規模經濟。 二、針對製程技術已進入成熟期，相對應於技術生命潛力會受限於自然，廠商應該在此時進行不連續性進步的技術策略，以掌握競爭優勢。 ;This research has collected information from analysis of related patents as well as the life-cycle trends of technical development of the TiO2 industry. Since the consumption ratio of TiO2 is one of key indicators of a country’s consumers standards, the application of TiO2 in daily life is very popular in industrialized or developed countries. Therefore, it’s worthwhile to study the life cycle of its related techniques. This research use International Patent Classification for the patent analysis, as concluded from discussion with professionals and experts, This research finally takes ″titanium dioxide″ as the main strategy for searching patents analysis of related titanium dioxide technological development trends. ″Logistic Growth Model″ was used to describe the life cycle of TiO2 technology. At the end of research, we found four stages of TiO2 technology development. The first stage is the embryonic stage, from 1976 to 1990. The second stage is the growing stage, from 1990 to 2005. The third stage is the mature stage, from 2005 to 2044. The fourth stage is the declining stage. The fourth stage will begin from 2044. This research also showed that using technical information from leading companies when analyzing trends of industry technology development will greatly promote the accuracy of forecast. This research was completed in 2006; it was at the beginning of mature stage for technology. Therefore this research has concluded following strategic recommendations for technical development. 1. Because the TiO2 industry will have high growth rate, industry owners may consider increasing the investment to build economical-scale production capability. 2. The TiO2 production technology is in the beginning of technological mature stage, the life cycle of technology will be limited by mother nature. Industrial owners may consider implementing non-continuity technological strategies to get the competitive advantages over potential competitors.
