景氣循環與上市建築投資業負債比率相關因素之研究

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Title:	景氣循環與上市建築投資業負債比率相關因素之研究
Authors:	黃盈潔;Ying-Jie Huang
Contributors:	土木工程研究所
Keywords:	建築投資業;景氣;負債比率;財務指標;Property development firms (PDFs)
Date:	2001-07-10
Issue Date:	2009-09-18 17:09:25 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學圖書館
Abstract:	建築投資業的營運易受景氣波動之影響，景氣擴張時市場需求量大，建設公司會大量舉債以推案；景氣收縮時需求量減少，幾呈停滯狀態，建設公司必須將負債維持在一定的範圍內，以免因大量舉債之利息造成違約或破產危機，然而並非所有的建設公司都能因應景氣條件來調整其負債比率。本研究以營建業務佔營業收入比重80%以上之上市建設公司為樣本，將這一波景氣循環以七十八年底為分界，分成景氣擴張期(七十四年∼七十八年)與收縮期(七十九年∼八十八年)，利用迴歸分析與相關性分析的方式分別探討景氣擴張期和收縮期與負債比率相關之主要因素是否有所不同，其變動方向及變動程度為何，以作為建設公司訂定其負債決策之參考。本研究以實際財務數據加以分析所得到之結論如下： 1.建設公司多以外來之負債支應所需之資金，總負債約佔總資產之 60%，且負債資金主要來自於短期負債，短期負債約佔總負債的80% 左右。 2.景氣擴張時營業利益之變異係數與總負債比呈顯著的正向相關；稅前息前盈餘/總資產、總資產報酬率(稅前)、總資產帳面價值自然對數、研究發展費用率、每股現金股利/每股盈餘、現金股利/股東權益帳面價值與短期負債比呈顯著的正向相關，(稅前息前盈餘/總資產)的標準差、營業費用率與短期負債比呈顯著的負向相關；稅前息前盈餘成長率、(稅前息前盈餘/總資產)的標準差、營業費用率與長期負債比呈顯著的正向相關，稅前息前盈餘/總資產、總資產報酬率(稅前)、每股現金股利/每股盈餘、現金股利/股東權益帳面價值與長期負債比呈顯著的負向相關。 3.景氣收縮時每股現金股利/每股盈餘、現金股利/股東權益帳面價值與總資產呈高度負相關；每股現金股利/每股盈餘、現金股利/股東權益帳面價值與短期負債比呈高度負相關；公司所得稅額/稅前盈餘、固定資產/總資產與長期負債比呈高度正相關。 4.景氣擴張期和收縮期與總負債比、短期負債比、長期負債比相關之因素皆不太相同，且因素之變動方向也有不同。 Property development firms (PDF) are sensitive to fluctuation of prosperity cycles. When the economy is booming, an expanding housing demand triggers a great need for investment capital, causing most PDFs in deeper debts. When the economy is heading towards recession, PDFs must swiftly contain their debts to a more restricted range in avoidance of financial crisis. Due to limited lessons can be learned in the past, knowledge to this context is still scarce. This work attempts to draw relationships between company debt ratios and a group of primary financial indicators. To render this exercise fruitful, it bases its analysis upon two periods of duration, one representing the time of booming, the other recession. It is hoped that insights can be drawn by contrasting statistical analyses in these two periods. Financial statements of public PDFs are employed as the data bank for all relevant statistical analysis. The results of this work show that short term debts remain to be the main source of capital for most PDFs, although publicly listed. It is also apparent that, by analyzing the correlations between key financial indicators and short-term debt ratio, long-term debt ratio and total debt ratio, prosperity cycles tend to influence different subset of financial indicators. Consequently, key financial indicators will vary with respect to different economic conditions.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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