| 摘要: | 土地利用變遷受到自然環境、社會經濟、政策發展與人為活動等因素之間交互作用影響，土地利用型態與格局改變，以水資源的角度考量，會對水文環境造成衝擊，而全球暖化造成大氣中溫室氣體的增加，亦會改變水文循環，故本研究整合未來土地利用變遷與氣候變遷情境，進而討論未來水文通量的變化。本研究應用土地利用變遷模式(CLUE-s)、水文模式(MGWLF)以及氣象合成模式(WGEN)，探討鳳山溪流域2031年在土地利用變遷與氣候變遷之情境下，流域內水文通量的變化。使用地理資訊系統分析影響土地利用變遷的驅動因子，利用CLUE-s模式模擬未來土地利用的格局變化，並採用大氣環流模式(GCMs)進行未來氣候變遷下氣象資料之模擬，將未來土地利用變遷與氣候情境之結果帶入到MGWLF模式中，進行水文通量變化之探討。模擬結果顯示在未來氣候變遷與土地利用變遷情境下，月平均河川流量、基流量以及蒸發散量分別減少1.06cm、0.59cm、0.45cm；在未來氣候變遷與土地利用現況情境下，月平均河川流量、基流量與蒸發散量分別減少0.97cm、0.57cm、0.22cm，可知未來土地利用變遷會加劇水文通量的變化。而在目前氣候情境之下，比較未來土地利用變遷與目前土地利用現況，月平均河川流量與蒸發散量分別增加0.04cm及0.02cm，基流量減少0.08cm，對比未來氣候變遷情境之結果，氣候變遷造成水文通量的變化，比土地利用變遷造成之影響更為劇烈。;Land use change, being the consequence of the interactions of the environment, society economic, policy and human activity, causes significant impacts on water environment. These impacts can be magnified under climate change (global warming) situation which is expected to rise the temperature and alter the hydrological cycle. This study investigates both land use changes and climate changes to analyze the impact of hydrological fluxes under future scenario. The CLUE-s model and MGWLF model were to employed to estimate the impacts of hydrological fluxes of Fongshan River basin in Northern Taiwan, given land use changes and climate changes condition projected in 2031. For data analysis, GIS was employed to analyze the driving forces of land use changes, then CLUE-s model to project the land use changes and GCMs model to take into account the climate change in 2031. The outcomes of land use change and climate change were investigated with the use of MGWLF model to estimate the variation of hydrological fluxes. The results of simulation indicated that the monthly stream flow, base flow and evapotranspiration decreased 1.06 cm, 0.59 cm and 0.45 cm, respectively. However, the impacts of climate change with current land use condition showed monthly stream flow, base flow and evapotranspiration decreased 0.97 cm, 0.57 cm and 0.22 cm, respectively. Under current climate condition, the impacts compared between the land use change and current land use showed that the monthly stream flow and evapotranspiration increased 0.04 cm and 0.02 cm, respectively, while the base flow decreased 0.08 cm. In conclusion, the relative influence on hydrologic fluxes due to climate change was far more larger than that due to land use change in this specific region. |
