台灣房市泡沫價格研究--兼論擴散與蔓延效果

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Title:	台灣房市泡沫價格研究--兼論擴散與蔓延效果
Authors:	陳瑋薇;Chen,Wei-wei
Contributors:	產業經濟研究所
Keywords:	房價;家戶所得;時變現值模型;泡沫價格;泡沫價格擴散;house price;income;Present Value;bubble price;spread phenomena
Date:	2014-07-04
Issue Date:	2014-10-15 15:31:13 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	台灣傳統的置產文化，擁有一戶「房屋」等同於有「家」的觀念，使得購置房屋一直是台灣人的人生購買清單當中的必備款，也因此，房屋價格的走勢變動向來為台灣人關心之焦點。自2009政府宣布遺產稅調降後，台灣房價急速飆漲，即使之後實施多項抑制措施，仍止不住日益高漲的房價。究竟現今的房屋價值是否符合如此高額的房屋價格，此疑問為本研究所專注之焦點所在。本研究範圍鎖定台灣六大縣市，分別為台北市、新北市、桃園縣、新竹縣、台中市以及高雄市，研究期間為1994年第一季至2013年第四季，以時變現值模型(Time- Varying Present Value)建構出不動產基礎價值，推估各縣市之泡沫價格，並以最小平方法分析各縣市泡沫價格擴散現象。為觀察人口淨遷入數對於泡沫價格之影響，本研究於迴歸中加入各縣市人口淨遷入數進行分析。研究結果顯示，六縣市皆存在一定幅度之泡沫價格，幅度最大的為台北市，其次依序為新北市、桃園縣、台中市以及高雄市，最末為新竹縣。在各縣市泡沫價格擴散現象中，研究結果顯示台北市泡沫房價具有高度影響力，能當期影響新北市、桃園縣與新竹縣的泡沫價格，並且泡沫價格的由北到南的擴散現象是以台北市與新北市為中心，向南影響桃園縣、新竹縣與台中市之泡沫價格。 ;Taiwan′s traditional culture of housing has a concept that owing a house is equivalent to having a family. The culture makes purchasing a house has been a necessity in Taiwanese lifetime. Therefore, the trend of house price has always been concerned. The house price in Taiwan has been rising rapidly since the estate tax was cut in 2009. Although the government is dedicated to control the price, it still can’t keep the price from rising. As a result, this paper concerns whether the value of house is equivalent to the price. This study focuses on six counties in Taiwan, Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Hsinchu, Taichung and Kaohsiung. The study period is the first quarter of 1994 to the fourth quarter of 2013. This study uses Time-Varying Present Value to calculate a foundation value of real estate then estimate house price bubble in each county. The second part in this study analyze the spread of house price bubble by using Least Square. In order to discuss the influence of net immigration population on price bubble, this paper adds net immigration population in each county to regression. The result shows that it exists price bubble in six counties in some manner. The highest price bubble is in Taipei, following by New Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung, Kaohsiung and Hsinchu in order. In the spread of price bubble phenomena, the result shows that housing price bubble in Taipei can strongly affect the housing price in New Taipei, Taoyuan and Hsinchu. Besides, the spread path is centered in Taipei and New Taipei southward spread to the rest of the counties except Kaohsiung
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Industrial Economics] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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