台北市垃圾產出量之模式推估

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题名:	台北市垃圾產出量之模式推估
作者:	何建仁;Jian-Rin He
贡献者:	土木工程研究所
关键词:	統計檢核;迴歸分析;干擾因素;虛擬函數;社經特性;Intervention Factors;Dummy Function;Socio-Economic Characteristics;Regression Analysis;Statistical Test
日期:	2002-01-18
上传时间:	2009-09-18 17:10:00 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學圖書館
摘要:	世事更迭，環境轉換的速度往往快過我們的適應能力，問題的多變性也常超乎我們的想像。尤其現今民眾的環境意識抬頭，對環境生活品質的要求也愈來愈高，是以如何滿足民眾需求，而永續的經營台灣環境？為政府研訂政策之重要依據。　　當前諸多的環境問題中，又以垃圾的處理問題最為棘手困難，尤其環保抗爭，往往須投注大批人力及時間，耗損社會成本，如果環保設備因規劃設計不當，致使用壽命折減或效率降低，將造成投資的浪費，而排擠其他重要的公共建設，如何利用有限的資源，提高投資效益，為當前重要問題。　　環保設施的規劃設計是否適當完整，端視基本設計資料的正確性，其中又以垃圾量的估算最為重要，本文以研究垃圾量的估算方式為重點，另顧及基本資料之完整性、一致性及可及性，乃以台北市為預估對象，針對台北市的諸多社經特性以迴歸方式，並考慮以虛擬函數方式探討干擾因素如垃圾處理費隨袋徵收（政策）及颱風水災（氣候）對垃圾量的影響，以得到較有代表性而符合實際情況的預估模式。　　依台北市都市發展特性及民眾生活習慣，以商業相關項目為挑選自變數之依據，經實際資料迴歸分析結果，只有批發業（半年累計值）的曲線迴歸分析，能通過相關統計檢核，且其預測能力極佳但隨袋徵收及颱風的虛擬函數，則無法通過相關統計檢核，表現在曲線迴歸方程式上，此問題頗值進一步探討，以反應實際情況。 Due to the great strides of the world, changes are so rapidly that beyond our imagination and ability. The rise of the conscious in environment and the demand of the living quality from the people push the government to establish its policy as a basis. Waste management is the most difficult one among all the environment issues that we face currently. Protests from the people are the frequent issues that government has to handle. Planning and design of the waste management facilities is appropriate, integrated or not, all depend on the correctness of the basic design data in which the estimation of the solid waste is the vital part. As a consequence, this study put the emphasis on the estimation of the solid waste generation, and the object on the Taipei City to get the completeness, consistence and availability of the basic data. In order to get a model that is practical and be a typical model to other city, regression analysis are used to model the various socio-economic characteristics of the Taipei City. dummy function is used to explore the effect of intervention factors as impose with bag fees, typhoon and flood to the solid waste. According to the characteristics of the development of Taipei City and the custom of the citizen's living, the choice of the dependent variables is based on the related commercial items. As the resultants of practical data regression analysis, only the curvilinear regression analysis of wholesale can pass through the related statistical test and with an excellent forecast capability. However, the dummy functions of impose with bag fees disposal and typhoon could not pass through the related statistical inspection as a curvilinear regression equation. This remains as a further investigation and study.
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