台灣北部鳳山溪流域，近年來由於山坡地的過度開墾，高爾夫球場的相繼興建設立，水土保持調節不足，在梅雨及颱風季節，可能因多餘的降雨，造成淹水及山洪的問題，對人民的生命和財產造成重大影響，因此山洪、淹水區分析及警戒是相當重要的。因此本研究選擇此區，進行強降雨事件之研究，山區逕流模擬採用HEC-HMS，平地則採用WASH123D(WAterSHed Systems of 1-D Stream-River Network, 2-D Overland Regime, and 3-D Subsurface Media)數值模式，以2011年梅雨和2012年蘇拉颱風進行模式校準和2013年蘇力颱風進行驗證。研究結果顯示，經模擬校準出的參數，進行驗證是可行的，因此可依此進行未來該區颱風豪雨及長期事件下的模擬。 近年來受極端氣候影響，氣候變遷及土地開發為全球之重視議題，因此本研究應用氣象合成模式(WGEN) 與大氣環流模式(GCMs)之系集平均(MME)進行未來氣候變遷下氣象資料之模擬、土地利用變遷資料採用CLUE-s模式模擬之結果，藉由水文模式(HEC-HMS、WASH123D)進行探討目前氣候和氣候變遷，近未來(2020-2039)、未來(2050-2069)與遠未來(2080-2099) 三個不同時期，於土地利用變遷情境下，地下水位及流量影響。分析結果顯示，氣候變遷造成的水文變化，比土地利用變遷造成之影響更大，且未來氣候有乾季越乾，溼季越溼的趨勢，而地下水位在土地變遷後有下降趨勢。 ;Fengshan creek basin is located on northern Taiwan. In recent decades, excessive reclamations were conducted and more and more golf courses have been built on the hillside in this area. During rainy and typhoon season, heavy rainfall has induced inundations and flash floods, it brings the significant damages to local populations and destroyed their properties. In order to further understand this area, the Fengshan creek basin is selected as our study site. We used HEC-HMS to calculate surface runoff on mountainous area, and applied WASH123D numerical model for channel and low-lying calculations. Two extreme events, Plum rain (2011) and Typhoon Saola(2012), were examined to calibrate our model parameters, and Typhoon Soulik(2013) was used to validate modeling performance. Simulations indicated that the calibrated parameters were suitable for these simulations, and revealed a good performance on model validations. And then we used these setups for further flash flood and long-term simulation in Fengshan creek basin. It is getting noticed on the global issues of extreme climate, climate change and land development in recent years. This study aimed to understand the effects of climate and land cover changes by modeling future scenarios using weather generation model (WGEN), general circulation models (GCMs) and the conservation and land Use and its effects model (CLUE-s). And we put the above modeling results to trigger hydraulic routing to discuss the phenomena on the periods of (1) near future (2020-2039 years), (2) future (2050-2069 years), and far future (2080-2099 years). Simulations results indicated that effects of climate changes showed much obviously as compared to land cover changes. And the future climate is trend to getting dryer during dry season, and more wetted of raining season. The ground water levels tend to drop down as land cover changes in the future.
